tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2600342246275954382024-03-13T10:21:11.399-07:00Real American SolutionsBehavior has consequences! This applies both to individuals and to societies. Learn how most of the crises presented by politicians and the media can be traced to the cumulative effects of our own behavior in 5 key areas: Economic Understanding, Discipline, Responsibility, Critical Thinking, and Perspective. Ignoring behavior leads to failure; using this new model leads to real answers.
New examples every MONDAY and FRIDAY!James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.comBlogger1004125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-91576230243624934972023-12-07T08:27:00.000-08:002023-12-07T08:27:47.786-08:00Thinking Things Through<p>Before making up your mind, especially on a matter of principal, it's important to think things through. Here a some recent examples from my personal experience.</p><p>Because of a reduction in space at a new facility, I have been storing in my garage various items for the entertainment committee. Recently in preparation for the annual holiday party, the organizer asked me if I had any coffee cups in one of the half dozen storage bins. I told her I had many sleeves of foam cups. She was distressed, "I hate to use those. I worry about harming the environment." "Well," I said, "We can throw the out, possibly harming the environment, or we can use them and then throw them out possibly harming the environment. Once they are purchased, those seem to be the only options." I guess we will eventually use them.</p><p>Many years ago an admin associate at my work confessed to me an unusual situation. She was asked to make several copies for a meeting of the executives. After the copies were printed, she realized that she stood a good chance of being reprimanded by the cost conscious group for not printing them on both sides. To avoid the risk, she threw them out, reset the printer for two-sided copies and ran another batch. She was off the hook, and the executives were happy, little realizing that their bullying approach to cost-savings was driving counterproductive behavior within the organization. (And based on this and other examples, it was clear that they also didn't have a business climate or culture that would lead to correcting the problem.)</p><p>In a conversation at a family get together, the subject came up about self-checkout at the grocery store. It seems many people in person and on social media like to brag/virtue signal about how they only use live checkers because they don't want to take jobs away from people. I said that I don't worry about that because my local grocery store has had help-wanted signs up for a couple of years. Nobody's jobs are in jeopardy. The situation is quite the opposite. He responded, "Now that you mention it, my grocery store also has help-wanted signs up. I never thought about it that way."</p><p>Related to the last story, how many people worry about all the telephone operators, who used to work as intermediaries for all long-distance phone calls (or elevator operators or gas station attendants)? Most people today are not old enough to remember those jobs and would feel inconvenienced at the added wait time.</p><p>Imagine all the other situations where people make up their minds and take a stand on problems that only need a little more thought, a little critical thinking.</p><p><br /></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-54587359218799509502023-04-08T15:24:00.001-07:002023-04-09T13:49:15.448-07:00The Old Protection Racket<p>Imagine this. You deicide to open a little business, maybe a retail store. Business is going fine.</p><p>One day some tough-looking guys show up at your door and walk up to the counter. But they are not customers. The one guys says, with mock innocence,"You got a nice little business here. It would be a shame if anything happened to it." You agree that it would be a shame if anything happened to it. The tough guy explains that to ensure you stay in business, you will periodically get to pay out what "the boss" determines to be a fair amount. If you fail to pay enough or pay on time, there will be consequences. </p><p>It seems like a scene from a noire movie from years ago. But wait! A variation of this is happening today to every small business (and every individual). It's called income tax. </p><p>As we approach the middle of April, consider the parallels. You have to pay an amount determined to be fair by powers over which you have no control. If you don't pay enough or don't pay on time, you can face fines, penalties and, in extreme cases, worse. They can destroy your "nice little business." They can hassle and harass you until you pay, and you can't even call the cops - they <i>are</i> the cops!</p><p>Consider also all the small businesses that were forced to go under without the government having to resort to the tax code. Governments told them what they could and couldn't do, who they could and couldn't serve, based on some vague, questionable public health concerns. In Michigan you could shop for groceries, but the same store <a href="https://www.thecentersquare.com/michigan/article_f43c7e72-c1be-11ed-92bd-5b73e21f1b7c.html">could not sell</a> other items, for example, home improvement and gardening supplies.</p><p>The only difference between this loss of freedom through forced compliance and the good old protection racket is that in the latter case, we didn't elect "the boss." But the people of Michigan, and many other places, are apparently OK with this intrusion on their freedom as they reelected the same bosses (or their close associates).</p><p><br /></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-46713820145019139782022-04-02T11:02:00.002-07:002022-04-02T11:02:49.696-07:00Do Seatbelts Really Save Lives?<p> A little over a year ago, I retired this blog with a final summary. But I just can't keep quiet about some of the craziness out there.</p><p>I know the news agencies thrive on picking and choosing what they tell us and then telling us in a way that supports their political narrative. That can be expected. But when they, apparently unwittingly, present real information in the form of misleading headlines, it appears someone is not thinking things through.</p><p>Recently CBS (and others) came out with <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/live/video/20220401175206-report-seat-belt-warnings-are-inadequate/" target="_blank">this news story</a> about inadequate seatbelt warnings. The headline reads, "47% of people killed were not wearing a seatbelt." This gives people who do not want to wear their seatbelts a perfect argument that 53% percent of people killed <i>were</i> wearing a seatbelt - very little difference. So what's the big deal? The headline is not only not persuasive, it can be turned on itself to draw the exact opposite conclusion.</p><p>What needs to be said is that about 10% of people choose not to wear their seatbelt, but people not wearing seatbelts account for almost half the people killed in auto accidents. That means your chance of dying are about nine times higher if you don't buckle up. That's quite a difference from the implied comparison of 47% to 53%!</p><p>With use of seatbelts actually <a href="https://datahack4fi.org/what-percent-of-people-wear-a-seatbelt#toc-heading-1" target="_blank">declining</a> in recent years, wasn't anybody at CBS paying attention to the possible misinterpretation of their message? Poorly presented news is little better than fake news.</p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-85938596456665342402021-01-11T07:00:00.028-08:002021-01-11T07:00:00.456-08:00Final Summary<span style="font-family: Cambria;">“The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars / But in ourselves….” (</span><em style="font-family: Cambria;">Julius Caesar</em><span style="font-family: Cambria;">, Act I, Scene III, L. 140-141)</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">I have spent the last nine and a half years posting over 1000 entries here with clear examples on the same subject: Behavior has consequences. We reap what we sow.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Life in America resembles a buffet counter where people fill their plates, then sit down to complain about the meal. Their money problems, weight problems and so many others are blamed on the environment or big business and deceptive advertising: “The clown made me eat fast food; Saturday morning cartoons made me buy too many toys for the kids!” Then they expect the government to bail them out with new rules, restrictions and handouts. Objections are met by expert testimony that willpower is short-term or that chemicals in the sofa are making people fatter.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Tolerance used to mean listening politely to other points of view. Today it means accepting and excusing weakness, failure and dysfunctional behavior, while silencing the opposition. Therefore, instead of letting citizens learn from the consequences of their choices, we bail them out over and over. Lack of standards and low expectations are described as compassion as the government rewards bad behavior.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Without a strong emphasis on critical thinking, our prehistoric brains have not been able to evolve and adapt as quickly as our technology has advanced. Accelerating technical development over the last few decades has left us exposed to hacking, phishing, identity theft, trolls, cyber-bullies, doxing, politically-inspired boycotts, canceling, new addictions and other threats unheard of just a few years ago. People struggle to keep up with their smartphones and computers. We have apps that allow us to keep track of everything “on the fly” leaving no time to relax or relate to others. Technology has led to both sophisticated weapons systems and laws that prohibit crossing the street or driving a car while texting. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">An accepted philosophy is, "If it saves one life, it's worth it." This only leads to more restrictions to our freedom. Do we want to devolve into a society where we are all in figurative straight jackets to keep us from ever harming others or ourselves? Freedom and responsibility are the alternative but no one has the guts to expect and promote those ideas.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The culture has evolved from one of self-reliance and independence to one where every need becomes a right, including the right not to be confronted or offended.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In short, Americans, regardless of education level, act as if the government is always there to bail them out, some magic money tree will buffer them from any negative economic activity, where all their problems are someone else’s fault with an easy answer or magic pill or supplement or device for any condition – real or imagined -- any failure can be blamed on unfavorable conditions or some evil power brokers. They assume every appliance/convenience has been around forever and would be impossible to live without. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">It is that mindset, ignoring the five key dimensions, not the government or political divisiveness or capitalism or systemic bias, that threatens our way of life.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">If you don’t believe me, take a look at the last 1000 posts for clear examples.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-8292148971941782042021-01-08T07:00:00.064-08:002021-01-08T07:00:00.162-08:00A Nation Divided<span style="font-family: Cambria;">Well, here we are again; behavior has consequences. Poor personal behavioral choices grow into societal problems.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">For four or five years, responsibility for a divided America has been pinned on Donald Trump. The media and the opposition party led the way, giving him no credit and all the blame. Citizens were drawn in and equally divided by the merciless news coverage and personal attacks on one side and by the bombastic self-promotion and polemic tweets on the other. The media expect everyone to agree that he had not one single redeeming quality or made one good policy decision? <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">There certainly was a middle ground, but no one was interested in finding it. After the 2020 election, those who claimed to be distressed by the Trump-inspired divisiveness did not let up on their mocking, criticism and name-calling, while those backing the president were equally combative. Neither acted as if unity was an important goal. It's like a habit they can’t seem to break. Irreconcilable differences drive the chatter on social media and in the streets. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Looking dispassionately at the record reveals that President Trump made some good decisions and some terrible ones. Employment and the economy improved at a rapid pace. Operation Warp Speed cleared the way for a rapid approval of vaccines. There's more peace in the world with fewer American troops overseas. But frequently his personal behavior was appalling. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">No doubt President Biden will likewise make some good decisions and some poor ones. Those on his side will praise the successes; those on other side will heap on the criticism.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">"The line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either – but right through every human heart -- and through all human hearts.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, from The Gulag Archipelago. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Unfortunately, Americans are not in the mood for a nuanced, nobody's perfect, stance toward our leadership. They are fighting mad and will continue to choose insults over rational debate. The media revels in this attitude, and they will do everything they can to promote and stir it up to keep their ratings high and their audience on edge. By abandoning perspective, discipline and critical thinking, we allow ourselves to be whipped up into these ideological frenzies.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">We can choose to be influenced by these one-sided presentations or see them for what they are – blatant manipulation and propaganda. In many cases, journalism has been replaced by editorializing pretending to be reporting along with outright scare tactics. Americans could stop reacting, take control and demand better, but they don't seem interested.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Yes, the nation is divided with no end in sight, but it’s no one’s fault but our own.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-75350216314934998492021-01-01T07:00:00.070-08:002021-01-01T07:00:00.461-08:00We Are All Doomed<span style="font-family: Cambria;">It’s not nuclear war, population explosion, the Chinese economy or Russian hackers, not from Iran joining North Korea as an irresponsible nuclear power. Forget climate change or which party is in power. We are doomed instead by a disregard for the five dimensions, which leads to poor individual and societal decisions yielding unfavorable consequences. Just look around.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In the past the same technologies endured for centuries. Sons did the same work as their fathers and grandfathers. The lot of children was the same as that of their parents. Today, jobs disappear or change radically on a regular basis as new technologies require new skills and habits.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Computers moved from occupying a room to a desk to a lap to a pocket in less than 40 years. As each new modern convenience arrives, the time to adapt becomes shorter and shorter. We are doomed because Americans seem unable to use that new power wisely, partially because, as Stephen Hawking put it, “we still have the instincts…that we had in the caveman days.” <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Suppose a time traveler told Congress in 1900, “The automobile looks promising, but in a hundred years, building and maintaining roads will cost <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12043/01-19-highwayspending_brief.pdf" target="_blank">$150 billion</a> annually. Cars will contribute to major environmental problems and lead to millions of unproductive hours in delays and congestion. Annual traffic <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year" target="_blank">deaths</a> will surpass 30,000 by 1946, climb to over 50,000 by 1970 and never again fall below 30,000.” Cars would have been banned; we’d still be riding horses.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">When automobile-related death rates did drop, the change came not from behavior, but technology and regulations: lap belts, shoulder belts, airbags and improved car design. As people felt safer, behavior got sloppier: speeding, texting, forgetting the children in the back seat. Technology brings new miracles every day, as users become more careless and irresponsible.<span style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Similarly, electronic communication advanced as email, social media, Zoom and many other tools brought us together more efficiently. But they quickly spawned negative behavior. People fell off cliffs trying to get more impressive photos. Teens challenged others to dangerous stunts and bullied around the clock.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Social media became a better way to send anonymous death threats to strangers, to insult and intimidate, to organize mobs, to silence or cancel individuals and get them fired, to boycott companies. Instead of communicating respectfully, we make up our minds without verifying facts and use our position to express hatred toward “the other side.” Being right is more important than having a relationship.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Technology gives us more free time, but we spend it virtue signaling or passing along snide comments. On-line fighting, mindless entertainment and superficial interests crowd out substantive problem solving and real communication. Cute pets go viral. A 7-year-old has 17 million followers with 26 billion views of toy reviews to the tune of $22 million per year while big cities have thousands of homeless people on the streets and multiple murders every weekend. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Everyone should be happier, but that’s not the case. Modern conveniences leave Americans time to develop new addictions and imaginary ills. The medical community is complicit, adding new conditions to the list of diagnoses: occupational <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/27/health/who-burnout-disease-trnd/index.html" target="_blank">burnout</a> declared a medical problem by WHO and obesity called a <i><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2737919" target="_blank">chronic disease</a></i> by JAMA. People demand comfort animals on airline flights, and college students protest against offensive material and insufficient coddling. People embrace the victim role rather than expecting to work through their own problems.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Stress is <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/40527184/everyones-miserable-heres-why-and-what-we-can-do-about-it" target="_blank">rampant</a>. Levels of depression and suicide are up. A new book tells us, “One in five American adults are taking a drug for a psychiatric problem.” In an effort to overcome boredom, we buy so much stuff that the storage industry has new facilities popping up everywhere – then we buy books about how to declutter. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Many serious diseases have been all but wiped out, but some disparage vaccinations and impatiently turn to charlatans selling products based on fairy-tale science: ancient medicine, therapeutic touch, essential oils, homeopathy and other magic potions to cure minor aches and pains. One mother, following social media guidance, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/fake-science-led-mom-fee-bleach-her-autistic-sons-police-n1017256" target="_blank">fed her sons bleach</a> to cure their autism. The authorities didn't step in because that’s not considered child abuse, but letting kids walk to school or the park unsupervised is.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">How many Americans could survive the everyday hardships of just a century ago? Living without cell phones seems unbearable. Try giving up cars, indoor plumbing, central heating and electricity. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Each new breakthrough has both benefits and dangers. We take the former for granted and accept the latter as merely a side effect. We bumble along as artificial solutions hide the urgency. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">This lax behavior as the world changes around us does not work. The five key dimensions are shunned, considered passé. Don’t understand economic principles; don’t think critically; don’t be disciplined and responsible; and don’t have perspective. New technology and the government will solve everything – until they don’t.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-89145857944511941652020-12-28T07:00:00.079-08:002021-01-01T06:32:26.052-08:00Is California Insane?<span style="font-family: Cambria;">We are all familiar with the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/politics/gavin-newsom-french-laundry-california-governor/index.html" target="_blank">stories</a> of the California governor ignoring his own Covid-19 rules to dine at an exclusive upscale restaurant with friends and supporters and of the LA County Supervisor who <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/outrage-as-la-county-supervisor-bans-outdoor-dining-then-dines-outdoors/ar-BB1bxR20" target="_blank">dined outdoors</a> at her favorite restaurant hours after voting to ban such activity as too dangerous but before the ban took effect. They go out and party, then lock down the people who elected them.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">That’s just simple hypocrisy. That happens across the nation, although California does seem to have a talent for electing some real nutcases to various levels of government. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">We almost expect that kind of hypocrisy from any politician, most of whom are elected on the basis of their charm, good looks or name recognition rather than their ethics and intelligence. But that’s not why California stands out. Here are just two of many examples.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The Glock Company manufactures and sells guns. On their <a href="https://us.glock.com/en/pistols/g19#" target="_blank">site</a> they list the GLOCK 19, a 9 mm Luger. It’s a handgun with a magazine capacity of 15 to 33 rounds. It’s not unlike side arms carried by police. The site carries a warning, only one warning, and it has nothing to do with gun safety. It reads: “This Product can expose you to chemicals including lead [in the bullets?], which is known to the State of California to cause cancer and birth defects or other productive harm.” <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The sun can also cause skin cancer. Will they soon require that all doors that lead outside carry a similar warning? The danger of catching cancer from a gun falls far behind other, more immediate dangers.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Last August an estimated 3.3 million in California were “Facing [the] <a href="https://deadline.com/2020/08/california-the-largest-power-outages-in-its-history-this-week-1203015664/" target="_blank">Largest Power Outages</a> In Its History … Amid Record Heatwave.” On October 23 <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/23/map-where-the-pge-outages-will-be/" target="_blank">the news</a> came: “Due to extreme fire risk the utility is shutting off 466,000 customers between Sunday and Tuesday.” Then on December 5 <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/pg-e-warns-of-power-outages-as-california-braces-for-another-round-of-dangerous-fire-weather-the-weather-channel/ar-BB1bF0f6" target="_blank">the news</a> read: “As parts of California rev up for another round of potentially fire-fueling gusty winds, Pacific Gas and Electric is warning 130,000 customers across 15 counties that they could lose power starting early Monday morning.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Disregard the fact that many experts believe California added to the wildfire problem with poor forestry management. Just think about those stories in light of this <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/23/916209659/california-governor-signs-order-banning-sales-of-new-gasoline-cars-by-2035" target="_blank">headline</a> from last September, “California Governor Signs Order Banning Sales Of New Gasoline Cars By 2035.” </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Picture hundreds of thousands of citizens stuck at home on a regular basis without electricity to charge their cars (or their phones). It’s just one more good idea – unless you can see the unintended consequences. California citizens can sit at home in the dark and applaud their governor for saving the planet. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The antics of California would be funny if they weren’t completely crazy, and if the rest of the country weren’t slowly drifting in the same direction.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-3642729159739151502020-12-25T07:00:00.075-08:002020-12-25T07:00:00.350-08:00Medical Science<span style="font-family: Cambria;">Everything is moving so fast. The media reports on new research, studies and discoveries daily. People are living longer, healthier lives due in part to medical advancements.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">I expect that this endless parade of seemingly miracle cures drives people to look beyond medical science and put their faith in so many unproven remedies. Scientific-sounding sales pitches, ancient wisdom or endorsements by friends, relatives and celebrities lure them in. Then all it takes is a little placebo effect to convince them that they have made a great discovery, and they too spread the word. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Americans throw away countless millions of dollars in pursuit of relief from their latest aches and pains. Here are a couple more examples from reliable sources.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The first is about acupuncture. Many people believe acupuncture is an effective and safe alternative to mainstream medicine. Safety is not really the issue here. In the category of complimentary and alternative medicine, most of the pills and procedures are safe because they don’t do anything. The question in this case is whether it works.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">If acupuncture works, it seems reasonable to assume that acupuncture points really exist and that experts or experienced practitioners can find them. Otherwise it would be random needling, a technique that would fly in the face of a theory based on the existence of qi and its meridians accessible at particular acupuncture points.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><cite>Journal of Acupuncture and Meridian Studies </cite>after looking at 14 separate studies <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2005290118300530?via%3Dihub" target="_blank">found</a> “’considerable variation’ in localization of acupoints among qualified medical acupuncturists.” They admit that accurate point location is a significant factor in effective treatment, but the various methods of finding them yield highly inconsistent results. <o:p></o:p></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Furthermore, my <a href="https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/do-acupuncture-points-exist-can-acupuncturists-find-them/" target="_blank">original source</a> points out that the depth of the needles to access the point is not specified; and if the points were real, “wouldn’t they vary in location [from person to person] just as other anatomical structures” like blood vessels do? So many unanswered questions throw considerable doubt on the practice.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The <a href="https://www.fairwarning.org/2020/11/patients-pay-thousands-for-back-treatment-promoted-by-exaggerated-claims/" target="_blank">second example </a>concerns chiropractors charging thousand of dollars, not covered by insurance, for spinal decompression on a special device to alleviate back pain. One such device is “a mechanical table attached to Space Age-looking controls that its manufacturer claims can stretch the disks of the vertebrae.” (Medieval torture chambers had a similar table but without the space age-looking controls.) <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">A group called Fair Warning, “based on review of lawsuits, scientific studies, government documents, chiropractic websites and interviews with experts, found that the claims of success for spinal decompression stretch the truth,” and that the treatment “has never been proven [to be effective] in scientifically rigorous studies.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">While Internet advertising and participating chiropractors rave about success, insurance companies describe the machines as experimental and investigative. While the promoters boast of success rates of 86% to 90%, investigators found their studies “lacked scientific rigor” and that “no definite conclusions could be drawn.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">A professor from Oregon Health and Science University and an expert on the subject of lower back pain says, “Eight in 10 people with back pain get better on their own.” The marginal difference with this machine, even if true, hardly seems like a good investment, especially since it has also resulted in serious injury.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Both cases are scientifically very dubious. Unfortunately, science means nothing to Americans unless it supports their preconceived notions. Climate change is real, based on science; but nuclear power is dangerous, based on emotion.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Note: To receive in your email a very informative free weekly newsletter on the latest health scams, sign up at this <a href="http://lists.quackwatch.org/mailman/listinfo/chd_lists.quackwatch.org" target="_blank">link</a>.</p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-31773266237423166132020-12-21T07:00:00.134-08:002020-12-21T07:00:00.338-08:00Critical Thinking in Crisis<span style="font-family: Cambria;">American critical thinking is hard to find and completely disappears in the face of a crisis. During the virus scare last spring, two types of info emerged. One, often from the medical professionals, was the calm reasonable kind. It was right to be careful, practice social distancing, wash hands frequently and wear a mask. That message was typically drowned out by the breathless, panicky pandemic warnings seen on the news.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">We got the daily numbers of cases and deaths. We watched stories of people hoarding Purell, toilet paper and water. During the first week of the 15 days of voluntary lockdown, there were a shortage of coconut water and cellphone videos of fights in grocery stores over paper goods! Even before the disease got to the US, diners shunned Chinese restaurants. Then we were asked to stay in and practice social distancing, but some college students on spring break and others couldn’t be bothered. Today’s fun and freedom took precedence over the possible spread of the disease tomorrow or in a few weeks.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">On the first Monday that the schools closed to protect students, I went to my local grocery store to pick up a prescription. It was overrun with parents who brought their school-aged children shopping. Did they think a good activity to keep them “isolated” and protected was a family shopping trip?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Day 12 brought <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-panic-shopping-eggs-prices-have-tripled-in-three-weeks/" target="_blank">this</a> from CBS News: “Egg prices triple in 3 weeks amid coronavirus panic shopping.” This wasn’t price gouging; it was a genuine shortage. At the same time <a href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/" target="_blank">the price</a> of regular gasoline dropped to around two dollars a gallon, also a result of supply and demand. Most people were driving much less and, for some reason, stocking up on eggs. Only the first makes logical sense. The CBS headline got it right, calling the run on hand sanitizer, paper products, bottled water and eggs “panic buying.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Politicians and media commentators capitalize on this tendency toward fear and panic, encouraging the same reaction to win elections on one hand or to keep ratings up on the other. It has gotten progressively worse. Manufactured fear quickly turns to anger, then to hatred and to more fear. It makes people easier to control. Thus, politicians count on citizens leaving their brains outside the polling place and voting based on fear and hatred while the media counts on them to be glued to the TV for the next shocking update. Since we fail to remain calm and rational, we no longer receive calm, rational messages.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The same kind of "thinking" applies to everyday situations as technology gets more and more sophisticated and the people using it don't. We discover nuclear power and use it for bombs and submarines: but try to use it to produce pollution-free electric power and NO! No one can be serious about climate change and not be a advocate for nuclear power. Chlorine gas is deadly; chlorine in a swimming pool is safe. Nuclear bombs are deadly; nuclear power plants are safe. But the opposition is led by politicians and activists who are either well intentioned and ignorant or who have a financial interest in alternative energy sources. Regardless, they use fear and panic to sell their position, and it works.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The internet and cell phones allow rapid communications and information, but they lead to a lack of privacy, more sophisticated scams, cyber-bullying, targeted marketing for legitimate and bogus products, a mindset of finding people guilty before evidence is submitted and without a hearing. This technology which has so many positive applications, is used to incite riots and demonstrations and to spread misinformation and whacko theories.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">We have more food, and people are overeating. We have more prosperity, and people are going broke. We have more leisure, and people are more stressed. We vote based on fear and hatred. We never calm down to think things through. That’s the America we live in.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-28042609980597259652020-12-18T07:00:00.050-08:002020-12-18T07:00:00.367-08:00Flashback – The Blame Game<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">Many Americans stumble through life following rules of thumb they heard somewhere while making no attempt to verify their effectiveness: drink 8 glasses of water a day; avoid eating fat; wolf down Vitamin C for a cold; shun fast food, etc. They take the same attitude toward so many myths: fear GMOs and food additives; fear nuclear power; fear fluoridation of </span><span style="font-family: Cambria;">drinking water</span><span style="font-family: Cambria;">; fear vaccines; worry about (extremely rare) school shootings and child abduction and more. When anything goes wrong they look for someone else to blame and to the government to fix it. Many legislators understand and relish their role as savior, which allows this lack of responsibility to continue.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Here from almost 7 years ago are my comments on this tendency to blame and depend on others to help.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">[I just finished reading a book called <u><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Scapegoat-History-Blaming-Other-People-ebook/dp/B007MJ00HU/ref=sr_1_10?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1389043405&sr=1-10&keywords=scapegoat">Scapegoat:</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Scapegoat-History-Blaming-Other-People-ebook/dp/B007MJ00HU/ref=sr_1_10?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1389043405&sr=1-10&keywords=scapegoat"> </a> </span>A History of Blaming Other People</u>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In it the author tells how, back as far as the Garden of Eden, we have been finding others to blame for our problems and shortcomings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have blamed foreigners, other religions, the rich, the poor, bankers, God, Satan, witches, priests, kings and animals, even the weather.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think he left out all the “Bigs”:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>big business, big pharma, big tobacco, big oil, big government, big banks and the rest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one takes responsibility and it began with Adam blaming "the woman" and Eve blaming the serpent.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">This was coincident with two news articles:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>one about a common whipping boy, MacDonald’s, and the other about our lack of faith in the government.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The first is in the form of <a href="http://screen.yahoo.com/popular/science-teacher-gets-surprising-results-122737570.html">a video</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A high school science teacher from Iowa challenged his students to develop a diet for him based purely on the menu from McDonald’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were instructed to vary his meals and keep the total intake of calories and fats to within set guidelines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After eating three meals everyday from MacDonald’s and beginning an exercise program where he walked for 45 minutes a day, he lost 37 pounds and his cholesterol dropped from 249 to 170.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This flies in the face of popular opinion and documentaries like “Super-size Me” that try to shift the blame from individual behavior to the fast food industry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the teacher says, “It’s our choices that make us fat, not MacDonald’s.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> B</span>ehavior has consequences.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The second related piece of news is the results of <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/poll-americans-little-faith-government-081638452--politics.html">a recent poll </a>showing that about 70% of Americans have little faith in government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn't topped 50 in about a decade.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many are looking for fundamental changes in the structure of government, as “61 percent are pessimistic about the system of government overall and the way leaders are chosen.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The underlying premise here goes against the idea of responsibility as we look to the government to solve our problems and worry about their inability to do so, instead of being more self-reliant.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Perhaps it’s time to stop looking for someone else to blame, whether it be the government, fast food, or any of the other popular targets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s time to start solving our problems with better choices all the time.]</div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-46531637276164732902020-12-14T07:00:00.105-08:002020-12-14T07:00:00.149-08:00Health Insurance Is Not The Same As Healthcare<div><span style="font-family: Cambria;">“Half the harm that is done in this world is due to people who want to feel important. They don't mean to do harm; but the harm does not interest them. Or they do not see it, or they justify it because they are absorbed in the endless struggle to think well of themselves.” ― T.S. Eliot</span></div><span style="font-family: Cambria;"><div><span style="font-family: Cambria;"><br /></span></div>For more years than I have been writing this, politicians have been ranting about the cost of healthcare and how to fix it. Unfortunately, the conversation does not center on healthcare, instead they keep talking about insurance. The reason is simple: Insurance is much easier to fix; just throw money at it. Healthcare itself is a complex mechanism with many moving parts. But fixing insurance does not change the underlying issues. In some cases it makes them worse.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">People often talk about how healthcare was good, but not great, back in the 1960s; and it was affordable. Some doctors still made house calls. They yearn for the good old days. Along these lines, an interesting comparison occurred to me.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Back in 1960 a typical television looked like this.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SdCAPi_wxUQ/X7qiDqllrEI/AAAAAAAAAbo/5Tpq7NlEVWsBEB5OXCxudWXGFp42w8M-QCLcBGAsYHQ/s474/TV.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="355" data-original-width="474" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SdCAPi_wxUQ/X7qiDqllrEI/AAAAAAAAAbo/5Tpq7NlEVWsBEB5OXCxudWXGFp42w8M-QCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/TV.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Just over half the population owned a black & white tube television, and you were lucky if you could get <a href="http://www.tvofyourlife.com/historyoftelevision1960s.htm">five channels</a>. The TV had no remote, and there was no cable, so you needed an outside antenna or an inside antenna known as "Rabbit Ears". In 1960 an RCA black & white 21 inch console TV cost $268, most people financed this for about $10 a month.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Today the equivalent of $268, adjusted for <a href="https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm">inflation</a> is about $2400, and here is what you can buy for a little more than half that!</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TgOdAUX2QnQ/X7qk62fCtAI/AAAAAAAAAb0/zxbLUp-_-Kgc5V7ozOUUhuj7NKHlCQUaACLcBGAsYHQ/s329/Big%2BScreen%2BStore.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="208" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TgOdAUX2QnQ/X7qk62fCtAI/AAAAAAAAAb0/zxbLUp-_-Kgc5V7ozOUUhuj7NKHlCQUaACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/Big%2BScreen%2BStore.png" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">But the costs of medicine and the education moved in the opposite direction. Today we live longer and healthier due to <a href="https://www.thegardens.com/5-reasons-people-living-longer-parents/ ">medical advances</a>, but the price has increased faster than inflation. The cost of becoming a medical professional has likewise soared.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">One reason for both, ironically, is government interference: low cost insurance on one hand and student loans on the other. This greatly reduced competition. Make it easier for citizens to pay for something, and the people who sell it have no incentive to control costs.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The only way to control cost, any cost, is to focus on the reasons behind the high cost. Politicians are silent about these underlying reasons for soaring healthcare costs, and have made no plans to deal with them. The primary reasons for the high cost of healthcare are summarized below. (A thorough <a href="https://realamericansolutions.blogspot.com/2012/04/healthcare-costs.html">explanation</a> was given back in the spring of 2012.) </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Insurance Design: Insurance companies separate the provider from the patient. </li><li>Innovation: New medical technology and treatments save lives but add cost. </li><li>Lack of open competition.</li><li>Over-testing.</li><li>Billing and coordination issues.</li><li>Regulations and Restrictions: Rules vary from state to state. </li><li>Liability: The high cost of malpractice insurance affects all patients' bills.</li><li>Lax eligibility <a href="https://realamericansolutions.blogspot.com/2013/10/another-reason-for-high-medical-costs.html">rules</a> and outright <a href="https://realamericansolutions.blogspot.com/2019/11/medicare-for-all-part-2.html">fraud</a>.</li></ul><o:p></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Unless someone comes up with a plan and makes a serious effort to address these issues, all the insurance or <a href="https://realamericansolutions.blogspot.com/2019/09/medicare-for-all.html">Medicare-for-all</a> schemes will not succeed. The alternative would be for the government to fix a price on everything and see how many drug companies continue to innovate, how many doctors stay in business and how many students chose to get a medical degree.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">But politicians will continue to promise the easy non-solution to give the appearance that they care about fixing the problem.</p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-12475416528756738022020-12-11T07:00:00.062-08:002020-12-11T07:00:00.385-08:00Flashback – Hating the Rich<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">Millionaires, billionaires and highly paid executives are favorite targets for someone trying to garner support for a new program. We should hate the rich merely because they are rich. The government should take away their money to help the poor. In this stirred-up state of envy no one wants to think about how the anger is selective. Nor do they want to hear how such a move would dampen motivation at all levels while not really solving any problems. </span><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">I pointed this out right before the 2016 election, and nothing has changed since then:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">[Maybe hating is too strong a word for it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe being angry or envious is a better description of those feelings, the feelings various politicians and organizations vigorously promote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But since those same organizations and advocacy groups freely use the words “hate” and “haters,” it’s probably not completely unfair.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this case the hating is not only selective, but also difficult to justify.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Here is a graphic that has been going around on social media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It shows the total compensation of health insurance company CEOs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The caption and comments imply that this is the reason for the sharp increase in Obamacare (ACA) premiums for 2017. Let’s take one example and see what’s going on.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sn3uPZZr10w/WBOcU-OB7xI/AAAAAAAAANc/1VfjTBvjHaUF6dH4SZ0k4DoadnchsIwuQCLcB/s1600/Health%2BCEOs.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sn3uPZZr10w/WBOcU-OB7xI/AAAAAAAAANc/1VfjTBvjHaUF6dH4SZ0k4DoadnchsIwuQCLcB/s400/Health%2BCEOs.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Let's not quibble over the fact that the information is three years old or that they calculate daily pay based on 341 days in a year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If these folks have moved on, they were likely replaced by others who were equally well compensated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead take the first gentleman, Joseph Swedish as representative.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">He is the CEO of WellPoint, which operates Blue Cross Blue Shield plans in 14 states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here is some <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2014/10/29/wellpoint-beats-wall-street-expectations-as-customers-grow.html">information from a CNBC report</a> from 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“The company had 37.5 million members at the end of the quarter, up 2 million members from a year earlier.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Apparently he is doing a good job of growing the company and meeting analysts’ expectations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But is his pay driving up premiums?<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Take the $17 million shown above and divide by the number of customers, 37.5 million, and get 45 cents per customer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Divide that by 12 to calculate the effect on monthly premiums and we find that if he were paid nothing, each customer might see a 3.8-cent reduction in monthly premiums – 3.8 cents!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(By saving this up for 10 years each customer could afford one trip to Starbucks.)<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Maybe it’s the fact that the government forces us to buy health insurance that causes such a negative opinion of these CEOs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By contrast, we never seem to get upset about the amount paid to the Disney CEO or star athletes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We never hear people complaining that the ticket prices would be lower if their favorite quarterback made less money. We give these people our money freely, even line up to do it, in return for a limited amount of entertainment, and they also get rich.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Look at the recent Desert Trip concert in Palm Springs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of the 75,000 tickets were gone in less than five hours, with the good seats going for $1599 each. The promoter is expected to gross $160 million for the three-day event, while paying the headliners up to $7 million each (for showing up and playing for a few hours).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/music/la-et-ms-desert-trip-generations-20161005-snap-story.html">LA Times reports</a> that these rock stars from the sixties continue to do very well for themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Since 2000, the Rolling Stones have grossed more than $1.1 billion with their periodic tours, according to Pollstar, the concert-industry-tracking publication. [Paul] McCartney has racked up $761 million, [Pink Floyd’s Roger] Waters has pulled in $592 million, followed by [Bob] Dylan ($293 million), the Who ($200 million) and [Neil] Young ($153 million).”<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><!--StartFragment--><!--EndFragment--></div><div class="MsoNormal">We love to hate those one-percenters, the people making a lot more money than we do, but the outrage is selective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When it’s Mick Jagger, Bob Dylan, Lady Gaga, Peyton Manning, Rory McIlroy, George Clooney, Tom Cruise, or Oprah, then it’s OK.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Making almost $50,000 a day is very impressive, but it pales in comparison to $500,000 - $750,000 for a single speech or an advance on a book in the millions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> We love the ones who perform for us and hate the ones who help us pay our doctor bills. O</span>bjections to the rich being rich are both selective and difficult to justify.]</div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-50690768255238037772020-12-07T07:00:00.067-08:002020-12-07T07:16:49.517-08:00The Power of Numbers to Deceive<span style="font-family: Cambria;">Large numbers are impressive, so people often fail to put them into perspective. That’s why advertisers and advocates love to use them to get more sales or to garner support for a cause. Examples pop up daily, especially in this age of COVID-19.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Every day the local and national news media blast out the latest coronavirus totals. Millions of cases and over one quarter million deaths get our attention. In fact, relative to other causes they are very big numbers. It is a serious problem, but no one reminds us that 15 million is less than five percent of the population. Furthermore, I have never heard a news organization report on the number of people who have recovered. It’s sure to also be in the millions. It seems that people come out on two extremes: they either don’t take it seriously enough or they are unnecessarily terrified of catching it and dying. Perhaps if the news gave a more honest, measured account, more people would have an appropriately moderate reaction.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">I found another example in a <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2020/09/ftc-refunds-almost-39-million-purchasers-deceptively-advertised" target="_blank">health report</a>. “The Federal Trade Commission is sending 70,142 checks and PayPal payments totaling $3,864,824 to consumers nationwide who bought Quell, a wearable device that supposedly would treat chronic pain throughout the body when placed below the knee.” The company was fined almost $4 million for misrepresenting their product! Consumers who were gullible enough to buy the product will be reimbursed. That’s about $55.10 each for <a href="https://store.quellrelief.com/" target="_blank">a device</a> that is advertised on sale for $99 – not exactly a money-back guarantee – but the $4 million fine seems impressive.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Class action <a href="https://topclassactions.com/lawsuit-settlements/consumer-products/food/6-5m-chipotle-class-action-settlement-approved/" target="_blank">lawsuits</a> are also typical. Chipotle, accused of falsely advertising its food as GMO-free, settled for $6.5 million. After the lawyers took 30%, that left their customers with a claim of $2 per meal with a cap of $30 per household, but it “could be less than this depending on how many claims are made.” Again a big number reduced to peanuts per person.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Similarly Johnson & Johnson, a favorite target for lawsuits, was ordered to Pay $6.3 million in the Infant’s Tylenol <a href="https://www.wnep.com/article/news/johnson-johnson-to-pay-6-3-million-in-infants-tylenol-settlement/523-34c97007-81b1-43d2-b8b7-f3f6a185feef" target="_blank">Settlement</a>. That came out to $2.15 a bottle.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The number of <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/tables/table-23" target="_blank">home burglaries</a> in 2018 was 685,766, about half of total burglaries (1,230,149), and about half of those happened when people didn’t lock their doors. But when buying a home security system you will <a href="https://www.safewise.com/blog/8-surprising-home-burglary-statistics/" target="_blank">hear</a>, “A burglary happens once every 26 seconds.”<o:p></o:p></p><br /><span style="font-family: Cambria;">When big numbers are spread across many people, it doesn’t add up to very much.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In some cases, the news media implies big numbers just in their tone. A couple of years ago they wanted us to believe that school shootings were common, but what happened to school shooting news when the presidential campaigns got into full swing? The problem didn’t go away, but the news did. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">According to <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/school-shootings-of-2019-behind-the-numbers.html " target="_blank">Education Week</a>, twenty-five incidents occurred on school grounds or during school-sponsored events resulting in five student deaths, only one under the age of 14. Any such deaths are tragic, but that’s five out of 56.4 million students. Should anyone panic over such minuscule probability?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Headlines about these extremely rare events like shark attacks are easy to ignore, but when kids are involved, it’s different. Parents are terrified at the prospect of their child being abducted. Nosey neighbors report them for letting kids walk alone and authorities respond. An <a href="https://www.freerangekids.com/" target="_blank">elementary school </a>in South Carolina won’t let the kids whose mother wants them to walk home, leave school without an adult. “Today, only 10% of American kids walk to school, down from about 50% in 1969.” <o:p></o:p></p><br /><span style="font-family: Cambria;">Reuters tries to </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wisconsin-missinggirl-data-idUSKCN1P52BJ" style="font-family: Cambria;" target="_blank">assure</a><span style="font-family: Cambria;"> parents: “Kidnapped children make headlines, but abduction is rare….</span><span style="font-family: Cambria;">On average, fewer than 350 people under the age of 21 have been abducted by strangers in the United States per year since 2010.” Then Parents.com <a href="https://www.parents.com/kids/safety/stranger-safety/child-abduction-facts/" target="_blank">tells them</a>, “</span><b style="font-family: Cambria;">Every 40 seconds</b><span style="font-family: Cambria;"> </span><span style="font-family: Cambria;">in the United States, a child becomes missing or is abducted.”</span><span style="font-family: Cambria;"> But they don't tell them that 0.1% are abducted by strangers, over 95% simply ran away and 99.8% are later found alive. </span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">It’s an endless battle against the media, politicians and charities selling products or ideas and raising funds using big numbers. The best defense is perspective.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-8704267760279360482020-12-04T07:00:00.051-08:002020-12-04T07:00:01.550-08:00Flashback – Need for Speed<p><span style="font-family: Cambria;">It is no wonder that anxiety and depression are increasing as a combination of constant bad news, the threat of the coronavirus and political tensions are compounded by the breathless urgency of the media’s presentations. Everything is top priority, and everyone is fighting to be the first to tell their version of every story. No one can wait until tomorrow for a more thorough or accurate story, because by tomorrow there will be a new crisis.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Almost nine years ago I warned of this trend:</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p>[It's Monday morning and I find <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/news?actionBar=&articleID=5574507849045770270&ids=cjAQdPsMczoSd38QcjgOd3sRdiMUdPkMdzAQe34Re3AVcP4QdPkRb30Tcz0TdPkQc3AQe3sMdjgTdjkIdzcNcjkMdPAUejcOcz0Od3sRdiMSczkNdPwRdPcOcjoScPoOdPkR&aag=true&freq=weekly&trk=eml-tod2-b-ttl-2&ut=3zKM4aaNWo1581">a news story about a news story</a>. The news of Whitney Houston’s death was on Twitter 27 minutes before the mainstream media broke the story. A whole 27 minutes! That’s unbelievable! How could people be kept waiting so long? Shouldn’t there be some kind of law to prevent such unconscionable delays in communicating these life-changing events?</p><div class="MsoNormal">Of course I’m being sarcastic. It is rather amazing that Twitter has such a web of interconnections. The article goes on to cite statistics about the number of tweets and retweets, suggesting that Twitter may become the new source of breaking news. (The power of the social media is the power we give it.)<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">My question is: What’s the hurry? Why the urgency? It’s too bad Whitney Houston died. It’s too bad she had all those personal problems. She was a great entertainer, admired by many. But what’s the big deal about finding out 27 minutes later?<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">First, we have been conditioned to expect “breaking news” as soon as it happens – even news that does not affect us directly. Television and the Internet compete for our attention, and the way to get it seems to be to promise instant gratification for our news craving. Details can be filled in later, but the important thing, we are told, is to find out about it <u>now</u>. As implied by a series of recent smartphone ads, if you are the last to know, you are considered some kind of loser. It’s cool to be able to respond that you already got the word.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Another part of the problem is that people place too much importance on the roles of entertainers. They spend so much time, money and emotional energy following the output of their favorite performer, group or team that they consider them close friends. Stars can’t go out in public without people hassling them for autographs or selfies. Stars want privacy while fans demand their attention.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">This behavior, the importance we place both on celebrity and on instant news, is a symptom of a lack of perspective in our society that leads to problems elsewhere in our lives, poor decisions and misplaced priorities.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">When my father died, my brother called to give me the news so that I could make travel arrangements to attend the funeral. This news was important and personal to me, but if I had gotten it 27 minutes later, it would have made no difference at all.]</div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-79030273482362575282020-11-30T07:00:00.097-08:002020-11-30T07:00:00.169-08:00Pet “Owners” Beware!<span style="font-family: Cambria;">Last Friday’s Flashback explained how everyone gets upset when corporations and interest groups employ lobbyists to influence legislation, yet everyone is usually silent or supportive of protests and movements with the similar intentions, especially when they focus on the rights of the underprivileged or oppressed -- even if they are not human.</span><span style="font-family: Cambria;"> </span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Politicians cater to these movements, as businesses try to garner favor by caving to their demands. Both worry less about the small percentage with the issue than with their champions who latch on to the cause to show everyone else how compassionate and virtuous they are. Hence, tiny minorities exert disproportionate political and economic pressure. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">This dynamic comes up everywhere: in sports, fast food restaurants and grocery stores. They can’t say some things, and the things they sell must have favorable labels. Few have the guts to stand up to the pressure. A friend related that her church lists inclusiveness in their mission statement, but that was not good enough. They must also have a welcoming statement as a supplement to it – apparently you can never be inclusive enough! <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Some consider themselves “woke” by giving these movements credibility, while others wrongly shrug them off. They gradually creep into society almost unnoticed while we nap! <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In light of this, an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/aug/01/should-we-stop-keeping-pets-why-more-and-more-ethicists-say-yes" target="_blank">article</a> from the Guardian addresses a potential trend that should distress many. The headline runs: “Should we stop keeping pets? Why more and more ethicists say yes.” <o:p></o:p></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The suggestion that keeping pets is somehow immoral is backed by a mixture of both rational and emotional arguments. First they state, “recent research into animals’ emotional lives has cast doubt on the ethics of petkeeping.” The author of a 2015 book, <a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo19416930.html" style="color: purple;">Run, Spot, Run</a>, argues against pet ownership in that it “denies animals the right of self-determination. Ultimately, we bring them into our lives because we want them, then we dictate what they eat, where they live, how they behave, how they look, even whether they get to keep their sex organs.” When people tire of their pets or can’t afford them, they simply drop them at a shelter or abandon them. Experts in the new field of anthrozoology argue that this is all a form of cruelty. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">When people think of their pet as part of their family – and it’s getting increasingly common to hear neighbors and advertisers use terms like “furry children” or “pet parents” – it further raises moral and ethical questions. “The logical consequence is that the more we attribute them with these characteristics, the less right we have to control every single aspect of their lives,” say the experts.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Meanwhile, animal advocacy groups are working to change the term owner to guardian in places like Boulder City, CO, San Francisco and Marin County, CA, Rhode Island and other places around the world. This simple change may have both ethical and <a href="https://www.petfinder.com/helping-pets/information-on-helping-pets/legal-rights-animals/" target="_blank">legal ramifications</a>.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Institutions accused of exploiting animals, such as the circus, have come under fire. Animal rights activists claimed victory when Ringling Bros Circus closed. Now the pressure shifts to calls to end, or at least rethink, zoos.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">A related trend is the switch to vegetarian and vegan diets, not only for health reasons, but for ethical reasons as well. “Veganism is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqGOQ6JAiNw" target="_blank">up over 300% </a>in the past 15 years” to almost 10 million in the US. What pressure will come from these groups? Will they be the first to go pet-free for ethical reasons and then begin a campaign to get the rest to follow?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Finally, claims that keeping pets is healthy are also under attack. A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1762431/" target="_blank">Finnish study</a> of over 21,000 found cholesterol issues, other cardiovascular health problems and BMI problems associated with pet ownership. “Depression, panic attacks, migraine, and rheumatoid arthritis were more often associated with pet ownership among women. The associations of somatic diseases with pet ownership were more common among aging people, whereas psychiatric symptoms and diseases were more apparent among young people.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Although two-thirds of American households have pets, mostly dogs, cats or fish, be alert for pleas about domination and cruelty, that they are sentient beings with more rights to freedom than the average household can provide. These new norms don’t just happen; they evolve, little by little, creeping into society. And it only takes a small minority with powerful PR to start the ball rolling. (Who would have thought 20 years ago that there would be controversy about listing only M or F on a driver’s license?)<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-88952029678819534632020-11-27T07:00:00.182-08:002020-11-27T07:00:00.150-08:00Flashback – A Different Kind of Lobbying<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">This 2016 entry was prescient, especially in light of current events with so many organizations caving to the dictates of various activists and pressure groups. A small number of those actually aggrieved pick up support from followers motivated by a need to feel relevant and morally superior. With these dupes in tow, tiny minorities exert disproportionate political and economic pressure.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">Here are the thoughts from four years ago:<br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p></div><div class="MsoNormal">[Political lobbyists are the target of a lot of disapproval, and deservedly so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Big corporations, unions and interest groups pay them to persuade lawmakers to pass laws or propose regulations that favor them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> They contend that </span>these activities keep lawmakers informed on the subtleties of certain industries to reduce the number of unintended consequences, because Congress cannot be experts on everything.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">On the other hand, most of the population has the impression that these meetings and lunches are little more than legalized bribes for the rich to disproportionately influence government, an attempt to bring “<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/04/how-corporate-lobbyists-conquered-american-democracy/390822/">government in as a partner</a>, looking to see what the country can do for them.” The auto industry and banks get their bailouts. The military is given weapons they haven’t requested and don’t want. In short, to lobby is to try to get your way without regard to what others want or what is best for the country.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">But there are other activities almost the same as lobbying that most people either ignore or consider healthy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This came to mind when I saw a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38144598">news story from England</a>, but the type of behavior is certainly not foreign to Americans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact it’s quite common.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">The controversy arose over the new five-pound note.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When vegans and vegetarians discovered that the new tougher and more waterproof bill was made from a plastic polymer containing small amounts of tallow, derived from animal waste products, they took to social media demanding a change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They called the use of even a small amount of animal products disgusting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their rights were being trampled.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since they were not going to eat the pocket money and the contents were by-products of a food production process, stuff that would be thrown away, it’s hard to see how any harm was done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not like more animals were being slaughtered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet some circulated a petition, gathering over 40,000 signatures, demanding that the contents be changed.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">It’s so easy to click a box or sign an online petition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And you get to feel good about yourself for <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">caring</i> about an issue that’s important to a minority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You get to stick up for the underdogs, the victims, people whose beliefs were not considered when the government tried to make their paper money more durable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But 40,000 signatures represent less than one-tenth of one percent of the UK population and only about 3% report being vegetarian.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does this make a difference?<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">This behavior is repeated nearly daily in America.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People will protest slights against groups they aren’t members of.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The protests are based on the theory that if they can get a large enough turnout and enough press coverage, they can influence national, state and local policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The lure is the same – be a savior, do the noble thing, occupy the moral high ground; feel good about yourself for defending the rights of the victims and the marginalized, even if those rights never existed before and in some cases where the victims aren’t even human.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s how they get huge, vocal crowds or thousands of signatures when the issues affect only a few. (What's worse, the claims are often based on bad science, a warped understanding of history or emotional appeals.)<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">We have seen this mindset recently protesting a pipeline in North Dakota, defending a mountain lion that was killing cattle in California, supporting workers who took on obligations without the necessary financial resources and solving a bathroom problem that few knew existed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is all about pressure on lawmakers. Adults throw a group tantrum to get attention.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">It’s also so easy to vote, as the <a href="http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/massachusetts_voters_prohibit.html">people in Massachusetts</a> did to require that chickens and pigs live in larger cages.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those in favor of happier chickens spent almost $5 million on small demonstrations and other means to publicize the animals' need for more comfortable accommodations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those arguing that such changes would raise the prices of eggs and bacon, hitting the poor especially hard, could only raise $300,000 to try to make their point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The chickens won and the humans lost, because the emotional appeal of reducing what was portrayed as suffering for the animals drowned out the appeal of helping the poor afford food.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> So</span> voters went home from the polls feeling smug about making a difference.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">Some of these causes are worthy of attention; many are trivial.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it's exactly the same outcome as traditional lobbying.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Based on the theories that past behavior predicts future behavior and that behavior rewarded is behavior repeated, I predict that the future will yield more of this free lobbying. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lawmakers will feel pressure from all sides, as every special interest exerts as much pressure as they can, if not through monetary donations, then by demonstrating in the streets and on social media. Those groups always attract supporters with the promise of feeling fulfilled, compassionate and morally superior.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Is this different kind of lobbying any healthier for the country than the first? We will see.]</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">That was my feeling in 2016. It has (as I predicted) escalated as activities in Seattle, Minneapolis, Kenosha, Portland, Washington DC and elsewhere are portrayed as peaceful protests despite vandalism, looting and rioting. But beware that the latest protests may mimic a more sinister movement.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Consider <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/isis-video-new-jihadi-john-suspect-is-a-former-bouncy-castle-salesman-from-east-london-a6796591.html" target="_blank">this news</a> from the UK: A British-Indian Muslim convert, skipped bail in 2014 to join ISIS in Syria. He wrote later online: “When we descend on the streets of London, Paris and Washington the taste will be far bitterer, because not only will we spill your blood, but we will also demolish your statues, erase your history and, most painfully, convert your children who will then go on to champion our name and curse their forefathers.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p></div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-41656152398016869452020-11-23T07:00:00.059-08:002020-11-23T07:00:00.399-08:00Manifesting, Really?<span style="font-family: Cambria;">About 40 years ago a consultant descended on the company where I was working to meet with all employees (who later magically became associates) to introduce them to the power of what he called “visioning.” According to him, visioning was the key to achieving your goals in life and at work. He had convinced the executive team that harnessing such power would thrust the company forward.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Participants need only form a strong vision in their minds and things would turn out favorably. If it didn’t work you weren’t doing it right. As would be expected, employees dutifully attended training, and then returned to their desks to do their jobs in the usual way. Like most business fads, it quickly faded. The only benefit was that someone caught daydreaming could plead visioning as a defense.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Until recently, I assumed that fad had died – but no! It merely got rebranded and now is being sold to individuals as manifesting.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">I found the details on <a href="https://gabbybernstein.com/dos-donts-manifesting/" target="_blank">this site</a> from August 2019, “The Do’s and Don’ts of Manifesting.” <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">“Manifesting is cultivating the experience of what it is that you want to feel — and then living and believing in that experience so that you can allow it to come into form.” It can be used to “attract whatever you want, whether that’s a successful business, good health, a relationship or even a material object.” There’s no limit to the power of manifesting as long as you align with the loving energy of the universe. (It sounds a lot like praying that Notre Dame will win the football game.) <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">It is further defined as “the process of vibrating at a high frequency so that you become a vibrational match with the Universe and can co-create your world.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">According to the site’s own survey, a vast majority are confused about how to do it right. (Maybe they’re wondering why it’s taking so long for their dreams to come true when they are concentrating/vibrating so hard.) <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">But then come the disclaimers. Practitioners err in thinking that exactly what they want should magically appear. It doesn’t work that way because the Universe is wiser and may have different plans. You may sometimes get what you want, but you don’t have total control.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Even though it may initially sound loony and airy-fairy, there are some positive messages. The video on the site emphasizes focusing more on what you have that’s working, being grateful, instead of stressing about what you don’t have or how long it is taking. This is a good message, which I call perspective and have written about here about 150 times.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">That’s followed by more good advice about not trying to force or control everything. Don’t sweat the small stuff, be aware of your financial situation and be in control your feelings.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">When I first read all this alignment with the vibrations of the Universe stuff, it seemed laughable. But deeper down it looks more like a religion for the non-religious: “We can trust that an energy beyond our own is working on our behalf and that everything is working out for us — even if we don’t know exactly when or how it will happen.” Readers were advised to be patient and practice manifesting not just on special occasions but every day, the same advice you would hear about prayer in any church, temple or mosque. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The problem is that some people are selling this as a standalone, magic solution to all life’s problems, while the part about taking responsibility is easily overlooked. You can’t just sit down and wish things into existence. The Lord does help those who help themselves.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-62322894904557196572020-11-20T07:00:00.065-08:002020-11-20T07:00:00.385-08:00Flashback – Rights <div class="MsoNormal">Here are some ideas about our constitutional rights from an entry four years ago. The same problematic behaviors have been even more evident since then. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">[Thinking about how people behave toward the rights of others lately can become very confusing.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">About six weeks ago leading up to the [2016] election, there was quite a bit of talk about exercising your right to vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Public service ads appeared on TV about how important it was to vote and how your vote made a difference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As is usually the case around election time, some volunteers worked with car pools and vans to make sure all voters were able to get to the polls. Some continued to subscribe to the argument that requiring voters to present photo identification at the polls was a burden and discriminatory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, many people came together in an effort to make it as easy as possible for everyone interested to exercise their right to vote.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">We also have a right to bear arms, yet I have seen no efforts to make it as easy as possible to buy a gun.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact the opposite is true.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Exercising this right is burdened by several requirements:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>background check, waiting period, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where are the people who will drive me to the gun show or the firing range if I have trouble getting there on my own? – The idea of this seems silly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There aren’t television ads encouraging people to exercise this right, and most comments are to the contrary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two rights receive opposite reactions.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">We also have a right to trial by jury and to be considered innocent until proven guilty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This seems to be a right everyone is in favor of for themselves, but objects to for others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If law enforcement or courts do not do what citizens think they should have done, based on knowledge of the case picked up from the news or social media, the protesters begin demanding “justice.” Sometimes they even ignore the crime victim’s or their family’s pleas for calm and patience as the process plays out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">We also have a right to free speech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Supposedly you can say what you want to without repercussions, particularly from the government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But students at various universities protest against the appearance of outside speakers because what they say may be offensive or not correspond with their worldview.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Students are supposedly in college to learn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sometimes their ideas are wrong, and sometimes it’s just educational to understand another’s point of view.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, they protest demanding a cancellation of the event, or they attend to heckle the speaker already having made up their minds that the person is evil or offensive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When confronted with the idea of freedom of speech, they smugly argue that the First Amendment only applies to government interference.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">It has gotten to the point where a few universities have adopted the <a href="http://realamericansolutions.blogspot.com/2015/06/chicago-principle.html">Chicago Principle</a>, originated at the University of Chicago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It holds that if the speech or written statement is legal and not threatening, harassing, defamatory, or a substantial invasion of privacy, it must be considered, discussed and debated regardless of whether it may be thought by some to be offensive, unwise, immoral, or wrong-headed. This action tries to move the focus from some vague notion of offense or anticipated offense to one of learning.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">And it’s not just students.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Society bans the use of certain words by certain people, and they can only refer to them by their initials, even when discussing the word itself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many people feel they must consider their word choice very carefully for fear of committing an inadvertent offense or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microaggression_theory">micro-aggression</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you refer to America as a melting pot, you are demeaning someone’s heritage and traditions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you refer to our Forefathers, you are subjugating half the population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And on it goes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> P</span>olitical rallies have become scenes of name-calling and accusations rather than of debate and the post-rally walk to the car features fighting in the streets. </div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Critical thinking leads to the conclusion that we don’t treat rights the same.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some are encouraged, some defended, some ignored, some opposed and some applied selectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Isn’t that worth considering?]</div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-87544797795942898242020-11-16T07:00:00.063-08:002020-11-16T07:00:00.394-08:00Some Short Examples and Comments About the Five Dimensions<span style="font-family: Cambria;">Critical thinking: A few weeks ago a furniture company was advertising 20% off or 0% interest until Jan 2024, which was about 40 months away. If you take the delayed payment offer and pay full price, you sacrifice the 20%-off bargain. That is the equivalent of paying over 5% in annual interest – not exactly a no interest deal after all.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Responsibility: It seems fine to harass, shame or even arrest people who don’t wear a face covering, yet in the case of a person who has children without the means to support or feed them, there is unlimited sympathy and generous financial support from the government and others.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Economic Understanding: Recently Subway lost a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/01/919189045/for-subway-a-ruling-not-so-sweet-irish-court-says-its-bread-isnt-bread" target="_blank">court case</a> in Ireland. They tried to avoid paying tax on their bread, but the court ruled that their bread contains too much sugar to qualify for the “staple food” exemption. The media reported mockingly on the unhealthiness of Subway bread. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">One newscaster closed with “now it will cost Subway more” – wrong! It is really a hidden tax on the Irish Subway customers as they pay more for their sandwiches. I doubt if it will cost Subway any business as they raise the price a bit. Newscasters and most of the people who listen to them don’t understand economics or business.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Note: A recipe on Food.com for <a href="https://www.food.com/recipe/white-bread-41695" target="_blank">homemade white bread</a> uses at least as much sugar as the Subway recipe. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Perspective: Does anyone else find it odd that football players celebrate every time they make a good play? These people are highly paid to play a game. They are expected to throw the ball or catch it or tackle an opponent or keep him from catching the ball. When they do what they are paid to do, they make first down signals, high-five each other, do dances and mug for the camera. Try doing that in <i>your</i> job and see where it gets you!<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Discipline: Consider those on-line sports betting ads. It’s initially risk-free as they promise to match your losses up to a certain dollar amount. Aren’t they counting on enough people getting hooked, even if it’s only a bet or two a week? As the saying goes, over the long run the house always wins. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Here is some evidence of that. <a href="https://www.actionnetwork.com/news/new-york-legal-sports-betting-online-legalized-gambling-darren-rovell" target="_blank">This source</a> “estimates that New Yorkers bet $837 million on sports in New Jersey. When subtracting the payouts for wins using a conservative hold percentage, it’s an estimated $57.1 million in revenue for the operators and $6.2 million in tax revenue lost by New York to New Jersey.” With it not yet legal in New York, total losses to the state in taxes on the profits could be over $203 million.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Discipline (alternate): Despite being told for years to build a six-month emergency fund, most Americans were dependent on government enhanced unemployment and stimulus checks immediately after the pandemic struck and complained when they were delayed.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Other miscellaneous ideas: <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Three useless words – “go ahead and.” Every time you hear them “go ahead and” replay the sentence in your head with out them. It’s shorter and means exactly the same thing!<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The only way to be an optimist these days is to have extremely low expectations. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">“Some free black people in this country bought and sold other black people, and did so at least since 1654, continuing to do so right through the Civil War.” (<a href="https://www.africanamerica.org/topic/did-black-people-own-slaves" target="_blank">Source</a>: Article by Henry Louis Gates, a black historian)</p><br />James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-67231350206487098512020-11-13T07:00:00.072-08:002020-11-13T07:00:01.398-08:00Flashback – Does Luck Have a Half-life? <div class="MsoNormal"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">This takes us back almost seven years to the minimum wage protests at fast food restaurants. The question is whether people learn to change behavior when they are bailed out from predictable consequences. I have long argued that the reason you can’t raise a family on the minimum wage is that no one should start a family if they can only get a minimum wage job. Bad luck is not forever.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">People who caught a bad break certainly should be helped, but behavior rewarded is behavior repeated. Irresponsibility rewarded breeds more. Over the past seven years a lot of irresponsibility has been rewarded. Here are my 2013 comments:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">[More protests are breaking out around the plight of fast food workers unable to survive on the minimum wage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are demanding a wage increase to $15 an hour.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The news has presented the arguments pro and con, but have usually given more time to the protesters, sometimes, as in <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fast-food-workers-rally-for-higher-pay/">this CBS piece</a>, picking out one as a kind of “poster child” for the cause.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The hidden problem is that minimum wage, unemployment extensions, food stamps and other proposed government solutions ignore behavioral factors.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">A primary argument in favor of this issue tells us that all these people are less fortunate, that they need a helping hand to get back on their feet, that "there, but for the grace of God,” go we.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They completely ignore well-known wisdom that behavior has consequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are presented with the argument that every one of these fast food workers is merely down on his luck or a victim of a bad economy, and that the situation has nothing to do with consequences of behavior.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This unbelievable scenario is widely accepted by otherwise rational people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The media and many politicians never challenge it.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">This leads to an interesting comparison:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other circumstances, how do caring people really act?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If your teenage son sits on the sofa all day playing videogames, ignoring homework and refusing to do his chores, do good parents excuse the behavior and cover for him?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do they pass it off with, “That’s OK; he’s going through a tough time”?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even non-parents know the answer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Good parents will institute consequences for this poor behavior, knowing that if they don’t, life and reality will later institute much harsher consequences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Teenage sons can be very difficult, but good parents anticipate with a pattern of similar, consistent reactions to deal with natural childhood resistance and laxness.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s how caring people act.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They don’t always come to the rescue – behavior that makes the rescuer feel powerful, but often causes long-term harm to the one rescued. When the bad situation is a bad break, sympathy and a leg up are appropriate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the son is mugged and loses money, parents may reimburse him for the loss.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If he loses it gambling, that’s the consequence of bad behavior.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bailing him out is inappropriate, dulls the impact of the consequence and no learning occurs. (For an extreme example see the recent case of <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/12/health/affluenza-youth/">"affluenza"</a> in Texas.)<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Returning to the case of minimum wage employees, especially those presented by the media and never challenged, we must ask if it was bad luck or consequences that contributed to the situation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If it’s luck, then some temporary help is appropriate, because bad luck does have a kind of half-life or statute of limitations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A little help can turn things around, but caring people do not bail out from consequences. That only fosters more problematic behavior.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Even in these seemingly innocent human-interest stories the determination requires only a few simple questions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where did those two or three children come from?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where is the father (or fathers)?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What contribution is he making?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If none, why not?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Did the workers finish high school; were drugs ever involved; are they applying for better jobs, are they looking for ways to increase skills, etc., etc.?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is the long-term plan, if any?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(CBS later reported that their "poster-child" example turned down promotions more than once because it didn’t fit her preferred personal schedule. Another news story told of a kind social worker repairing at minimum cost the car of a woman who hasn't been able to work in 5 years due to a neck injury. She can't work, but she can drive?!)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Looking at the situation through the behavioral lens would probably determine that many of these people are not victims.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many are living with the consequences of earlier choices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Should caring people run to bail them out, labeling them all as “less fortunate,” as the compassionistas would have us believe?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not only do they not learn and grow, but the next generation, poised to make the same mistakes, sees no example to discourage them from following the same path.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, the current, non-behavioral approaches, which lump them all into the same category, lead not to solutions but to perpetual problems.]</div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-7885079620836367142020-11-09T07:00:00.013-08:002020-11-09T07:00:00.803-08:00Libraries As Socialism<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
I have from time to time heard defenders of socialism use the local library as an example of socialism in practice. The building, utilities, workers and books are paid for mostly by taxes (with some additional funds from books sales and donations). <o:p></o:p></div>
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Who can say anything bad about the library? It’s available and it’s free. In fact my library’s computer reminds me at checkout how much I have saved by not having to buy the books. <o:p></o:p></div>
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I am a supporter and big user of my library system. Sometimes I go to the library without anything particular in mind just to pick out an interesting book to read. Sometimes I go with a particular subject in mind and browse through the available books in that section of the stacks. I usually come away with something and never have to pay. (The same can be said of movies on DVD or music, but with everyone streaming, that part of their business has probably fallen off.)<o:p></o:p></div>
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Sometimes, however, I am looking for a particular title that I’ve seen on TV or seen a reference to in my reading. I check the website and the library doesn’t have it. Somebody in charge of ordering books either was not familiar with it or didn’t feel that it should make the cut for what they spend their limited funds on. I have very little control over this centralized decision.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Sometimes when checking the website I do find the book I want, but someone else has it checked out. The computer tells me how many copies they have in the system and where I am on the waiting list should I decide to put the book on hold. I have waited as long as 8 weeks, occasionally longer, for notification that the book is available. I am given 5 days to pick it up during the 60 hours of the week they are open (prior to the shortened COVID hours). Most of those hours are when people are working and kids are in school.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></div>
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I put up with these inconveniences because getting a particular book to read is not urgent or important to me. The library is fine, but it has its limitations. I can bypass these limitations using available alternatives.<o:p></o:p></div>
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If I really need the book I go the capitalist route – Amazon, for example. I can find almost any book or movie I want on the Internet. I can buy it and download it directly to my phone and begin reading. If the system is working properly, the number of copies available is driven by demand from myself and others rather than by some individual’s taste or guesswork. I can do this 24 hours a day; I never have to wait for another reader to finish and return it. I can mark it up if I choose and can take as long as I want to read it. Because it’s mine, I have that freedom.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Where other services are concerned, such inconveniences are no longer trivial. No one would want to put up with them in important areas like groceries, utilities, transportation, healthcare and many others. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Why do people in the UK or Canada sometimes have to wait longer for medical procedures? – Because their healthcare is run on the library model. Why do we hear stories of food shortages in places like Venezuela and the former Soviet Union? – Because the food supply is run on the library model. Some central decision maker, not individual consumers voting with their dollars, controls the system. Why does public education in America lag behind so many other countries? – Because as parents become more and more disengaged, it moves closer to the library model where central decision makers dictate methods and judge outcomes.<o:p></o:p><br />
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Most areas run by the government or where the government gets involved are the the epitome of inefficiency: student loans, home mortgages, the court system, the DMV, the post office, Amtrak, and public education (where teachers keep asking to be paid more to teach fewer students with questionable results).</div>
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Healthcare in America is already too much like the library model. There is no real competition, and the consumer is separated from the provider by an insurance middleman. So everyone rightly complains about it.</div>
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I love libraries, but I wouldn’t want to depend on them or anything like them for the necessities of life. <o:p></o:p></div>
James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-66561503915010573692020-11-06T07:00:00.075-08:002020-11-06T07:00:00.348-08:00Flashback – Critical Thinking<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">The idea behind the flashbacks on Fridays is to review and update some thoughts and examples from the past. These examples remain valid because behavior has changed very little over the years. We are not learning from our mistakes.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The main difference in 2020 is that almost every subject quickly becomes political with people taking sides. The Real Solutions are not political. They come from people changing their personal consequences by improved choices using the Five Dimensions. As these individual improvements accumulate, America moves in the right direction. The solutions come from us and not from the government, but try telling someone that in an election year! <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Here from almost nine years ago are some thoughts on critical thinking.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p></div><div class="MsoNormal">[Around the time of the Civil War, John Stuart Mill wrote essays in opposition to slavery and in favor of women’s rights. In both cases he recognized the difficulty of persuading people to change their minds when their conviction was based on feelings rather than logic – thinking with their hearts instead of their brains. Near the beginning of “The Subjection of Women” he writes: “So long as opinion is strongly rooted in the feelings, it gains rather than loses instability by having a preponderating weight of argument against it. For if it were accepted as a result of argument, the refutation of the argument might shake the solidity of the conviction; but when it rests solely on feeling, … the more persuaded adherents are that their feeling must have some deeper ground, … always throwing up fresh entrenchments of argument to repair any breach made in the old.” In other words, it’s tough to get people to change their mind when their opinion is not based on logic. The more you talk, the deeper they dig in to protect long-held beliefs. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">We see this behavior almost daily. We are warned to avoid subjects of religion and politics in social conversations. They lead to no resolution, instead causing others to protect their turf.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">This is why many of my critical thinking arguments will fall on deaf ears. Considering, though, the waste, misdirection and sometimes danger that result from individual and societal forays down these blind alleys of feeling-based decisions, I continue.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">There are two categories of critical thinking. The first involves paying closer attention, for example, recognizing the popular advertising pitch of “save up to 50% or more” as virtually meaningless. Literally it means: maybe saving some undefined amount that can be less or more than 50%. Likewise, how can all car insurance companies save you (up to) $300 when you switch? They all say so. One even claims that 80% of those who switched saved money - but doesn't mention the 20% dumb enough to switch anyway. These examples, and many others, just take some basic questioning.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The second category hits on subjects treated almost as religious beliefs. When I warn of the dangers of dietary supplements, the ineffectiveness of performance bracelets, or that all-natural does not necessarily mean healthier, I know there are a certain number of readers who will dig in, ignoring examples, evidence and explanations, knowing in their hearts that they are doing the right thing, resisting rather than even considering an alternative point of view. For some the ideas of green and sustainable are nearly sacred. They will not bat an eye when told that a particular wind turbine, for example, saves enough coal-powered energy to pay for itself in 150 years, but has a life expectancy of only 50 years! “But, but, but it’s green! It must be good. It’s the direction we need to be moving!” Logic is lost in feelings and further argument leads only to increased resistance.<br /><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;">Nevertheless, I will continue to cite examples and drive the message of critical thinking. Making good decisions most of the time is essential for our success, both as individuals and as a society.]</span></div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-37044988208052449062020-11-02T07:00:00.015-08:002020-11-02T07:00:00.637-08:00Why Do They Bother?<span style="font-family: Cambria;">I often wonder about news agencies. They publish flashy headlines, but the details later in the stories turn out to be much less interesting or conclusive. Here is a </span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/14/health/blood-group-covid-19-scn-wellness/index.html" style="font-family: Cambria;" target="_blank">recent example</a><span style="font-family: Cambria;"> from CNN health: “People with blood type O may have lower risk of Covid-19 infection and severe illness, two new studies suggest.” (At least citing two studies is better than their frequent practice of citing one unnamed source in their political news, but let's get into it.)</span><span style="font-family: Cambria;"> </span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The studies concluded, “People with blood type O may be less vulnerable to Covid-19 and have a reduced likelihood of getting severely ill.” To compound the weakness of this conclusion that they “may be less vulnerable” they add a disclaimer that “Experts say more research is needed.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">What we know so far, provided we read the headline carefully, is that something “may be” going on, and even if true, the connection is not clear.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">A study from Denmark found that of a sample of 7,422 people who tested positive, 38.4% were blood type O, whereas 41.7% of a separate non-tested group of the 2.2 million Danish people has that blood type. The article doesn’t explain where that 2.2 million came from. The population of Denmark is about 5.8 million. Were those 2.2 million representative of the entire population?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">It is likely the results were statistically significant or they would not have been published. Still, statistical significance is overrated, and the difference between 41.7% and 38.4% does not seem to be of any practical significance to a CNN audience. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The difference for Danes with type A blood goes in the opposite direction, 44.4% ill compared to 42.4% of the population. But the Type O and Type A does not account for everyone, only 84.1%. The remaining type B and AB people must comprise 15.9% of the population and account for 17.2% of the cases, which is actually proportionally higher than the type A cases. Why they reported what they did, the way they did, is puzzling.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The second, a Canadian study, looked at a much smaller sample, only 95 critically ill patients. Of them, 84% of those with blood type A or AB required ventilators compared to 61% of type O or B. They didn’t make the same comparisons under the same conditions as the Danish study. The only common finding was the better performance of blood type O.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The final conclusion of the CNN article is that no one should worry and no one should become complacent. Blood type does not supersede other risk factors. The information is useful only to researchers in this narrow field of trying to discover a link between blood type and COVID susceptibility or seriousness. They “don't yet know what mechanism could explain the link” or if a link exists.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The fact that they were published in a journal called <i>Blood Advances</i> reinforces how narrow the focus for the studies was. It wasn’t really intended for the general public. Which brings me back to my original question. Why do they bother? <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Not to pick on CNN. The same useless information appeared in Forbes, NBC, UPI Health News, Science Focus and others. The pressure to fill airtime and Internet space must be overwhelming. We get such news with its exciting headlines whether it adds any value to our daily lives or not.<o:p></o:p></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-91863521450516737912020-10-30T07:00:00.116-07:002020-10-30T07:00:01.297-07:00Flashback – (Mis)understanding Insurance<p><span style="font-family: Cambria;">If they learn economics in journalism school, they must quickly forget everything upon graduation. Furthermore, when the facts don't make a compelling story, they resort to the usual tactic of trying to make stories fit their worldview or make things look scarier than they are. Here is a prime example I gave in December 2016.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p>[As I was reading the <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-paul-ryan-on-partnership-with-donald-trump/">transcript</a> of Scott Pelley’s "60 Minutes" interview with House Speaker Paul Ryan, I noticed that he seemed uninterested in hard news or in-depth information so much as he was interested in tripping up the Speaker, trying to put him in a position of disagreeing with his new boss, making one or the other of them look bad, or uncovering something potentially embarrassing.</p><div class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal">He asked how often the two speak on the phone and who initiates the conversation. The answers were almost daily and both.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No news there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> H</span>ow does he answer the phone?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">He doesn’t say, ‘This is the president-elect?’”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Have you told him being president is not being CEO of the United States, that the Congress is going to have a say?”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Instead of asking how the two got together after a contentious election, he asked, “Who apologized to whom?”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s clear by now that Pelley has no liking or respect for Donald Trump, thinks he is a bully and a racist, and is searching for evidence to back up his views.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Better yet, he would like to get Ryan to agree on any point that might make it seem he is of the same opinion.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The silliness and self-serving finally comes to a close, and Pelley asks a number of questions about policy issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Soon he gets to the details about possible changes to Obamacare and the sniping continues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At one point Pelley says “<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">And women will pay the same as men? That didn’t used to be the case.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a question designed to get an answer that will incite outrage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is trying to get some admission of Republican bias against women, but showing in the process that he does not understand how insurance works and counting on the fact that many Americans don’t either.</span><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Insurance usually works by assessing the risk and charging premiums accordingly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you have homeowner’s insurance you expect a discount for having a working alarm system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Teen drivers are generally less safe than more experienced drivers, but boys have more accidents than girls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Auto insurance for a young man 16-25 is higher.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no outrage there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not unusual for companies to charge smokers more for their health insurance benefits.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Owners of cars with higher repair costs pay higher premiums.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Older cars are cheaper to insure due to the lower replacement cost.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those who don’t drive as many miles sometimes pay lower premiums.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Costs of auto and homeowners insurance vary by what part of the country and by the size of the town or city you live in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And since women outlive men and take fewer chances, they pay less for life insurance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Older people pay more, as do those who participate in dangerous hobbies like skydiving or juggling chainsaws.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">This all happens without a stir.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everyone seems to understand that certain classes of people are at a higher risk for either the frequency or the size of insurance claims.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence they should pay more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ones in the classes with higher premiums don’t like it, but they pay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So why would people be upset that some women, especially those of childbearing age, might have to pay more?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That “used to be the case” and it didn’t have anything to do with prejudice or victimization.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Apparently the government and some group of citizens have now decided that charging women more for health insurance can be explained only by prejudice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everyone must purchase the same insurance for the same cost or there will be an uproar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And Scott Pelley and others in his profession are more than happy to incite and later fan the flames of that uproar, because it makes their job of reporting the news so much easier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their job is not to inform or to educate; their job is to attract views and clicks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nothing does that better than a good demonstration or protest, even those grounded in fundamental misunderstanding.]<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">P.S. I have <a href="http://realamericansolutions.blogspot.com/2015/08/missing-point-on-healthcare.html">often said</a> that problems with healthcare costs must be solved on the basis of costs, not by tinkering with health insurance, but that’s for another discussion.</div>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260034224627595438.post-37710955718778779532020-10-26T07:00:00.016-07:002020-10-26T11:33:30.126-07:00National Debt – What, Me Worry?<span style="font-family: Cambria;">If you care about the country going bankrupt, it doesn’t matter who you vote for. Both parties seem to be indifferent to it. There's only a small difference in the size of their trillion-dollar spending bills.</span><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Below are two graphs. The first shows, from the best <a href="http://www.polidiotic.com/by-the-numbers/us-federal-deficit-by-year/" target="_blank">source</a> I could find, the spending and revenue of the United States over the last 30 years. We actually had a small surplus in the last two years of the Clinton Administration. Then things went south. Bush started a couple of unnecessary wars and added Medicare Part D. Obama continued those wars, failed to take ISIS seriously and threw in some stimulus. Trump wanted to build up the military, already the largest in the world, but the democrats would only agree if they got a proportional boost to their favorite domestic programs. The lines clearly show what happened. <o:p></o:p></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Tzwq2dnxPrU/X14UTyQEUvI/AAAAAAAAAa4/taLUFcoaeBkVJXR2NmXFwOjKWogcoe75QCLcBGAsYHQ/s984/Before%2BGov.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="984" height="274" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Tzwq2dnxPrU/X14UTyQEUvI/AAAAAAAAAa4/taLUFcoaeBkVJXR2NmXFwOjKWogcoe75QCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h274/Before%2BGov.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Just as a thought experiment, suppose the rate of increase of federal government spending had remained the same as it was from 1990 to 2000 under Bush (R) and Clinton (D) – not the same level of spending, but the same rate of increase. Here is what that would have looked like. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T8kRwlfzkSc/X14UlCfzxFI/AAAAAAAAAbA/8z-c3Tn_gdUtZQTHWMIMXdFpBCY3ODgKgCLcBGAsYHQ/s984/Stable.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="984" height="274" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T8kRwlfzkSc/X14UlCfzxFI/AAAAAAAAAbA/8z-c3Tn_gdUtZQTHWMIMXdFpBCY3ODgKgCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h274/Stable.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Even with the two tax cuts that politicians told us would cause huge problems; many of those years would have run a surplus fed by growth in the economy over the past 8 years or so. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Now this exact scenario would likely not have been possible due to the increased Social Security outlays as the Baby Boomers hit retirement age. But still, if you ask people over the age of 45 how life was during the 1990s, how well needs were being met; the majority would say that things were fine. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The question is: how much of that extra spending went to real improvement, how much was pure waste, and how much went to buying your vote (using your own money to do it)?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">We hope for responsible leaders; but when it comes to spending, politicians take the attitude of Alfred E. Newman, the fictitious mascot of Mad Magazine.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Utc2s5L3ihw/X14UxFJ9P4I/AAAAAAAAAbE/cflGhuyTGMI_sJvR4E0h_xWUpN3kxPpEgCLcBGAsYHQ/s450/aen.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="369" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Utc2s5L3ihw/X14UxFJ9P4I/AAAAAAAAAbE/cflGhuyTGMI_sJvR4E0h_xWUpN3kxPpEgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/aen.png" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: cambria; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p>James Jerayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10825990834121369407noreply@blogger.com1