Predicting the Future

 It's an established fact that most people in the United States think they can predict the future. 

Look at the results of the last election. Approximately half the people in the country are delighted that the future looks bright. The other half are not just disappointed; they are depressed and frightened. 

Why do we act this way? It's because we are absolutely convinced that we can predict the future. Any doubt that may linger in our minds is wiped away by the dire or uplifting predictions, the enthusiasm or glum behavior of our chosen news outlets. One side sees the country as saved, while the other sees the country is doomed. One party sees a savior in the White House; the other sees a fascist, a dictator worse than Hitler. (Had the election gone the other way, one side would see a savior in the White House and the other a communist, a dictator worse than Stalin.) 

And whose fault are these misconceptions and exaggerations? It's the fault of the very political parties we support and the news media we follow. The messages have been reinforced daily for the last six months, over and over. And it continues. Fear sells, and we have been set up, manipulated by the news media and by social media to the point that we really believe the predictions. We are sure the we can see into the future.

Face it. If you could predict the future, you would be fabulously wealthy, living on your own private island away from all this chaos. The fact that you are not means that you are, to one degree or another, WRONG. So why do you continue to kid yourself? What's in it for you - except a chance to ride the biennial emotional roller coaster with a ticket price of your own mental stability. 

Thinking Things Through

Before making up your mind, especially on a matter of principal, it's important to think things through. Here a some recent examples from my personal experience.

Because of a reduction in space at a new facility, I have been storing in my garage various items for the entertainment committee. Recently in preparation for the annual holiday party, the organizer asked me if I had any coffee cups in one of the half dozen storage bins. I told her I had many sleeves of foam cups. She was distressed, "I hate to use those. I worry about harming the environment." "Well," I said, "We can throw the out, possibly harming the environment, or we can use them and then throw them out possibly harming the environment. Once they are purchased, those seem to be the only options." I guess we will eventually use them.

Many years ago an admin associate at my work confessed to me an unusual situation. She was asked to make several copies for a meeting of the executives. After the copies were printed, she realized that she stood a good chance of being reprimanded by the cost conscious group for not printing them on both sides. To avoid the risk, she threw them out, reset the printer for two-sided copies and ran another batch. She was off the hook, and the executives were happy, little realizing that their bullying approach to cost-savings was driving counterproductive behavior within the organization. (And based on this and other examples, it was clear that they also didn't have a business climate or culture that would lead to correcting the problem.)

In a conversation at a family get together, the subject came up about self-checkout at the grocery store. It seems many people in person and on social media like to brag/virtue signal about how they only use live checkers because they don't want to take jobs away from people. I said that I don't worry about that because my local grocery store has had help-wanted signs up for a couple of years. Nobody's jobs are in jeopardy. The situation is quite the opposite. He responded, "Now that you mention it, my grocery store also has help-wanted signs up. I never thought about it that way."

Related to the last story, how many people worry about all the telephone operators, who used to work as intermediaries for all long-distance phone calls (or elevator operators or gas station attendants)? Most people today are not old enough to remember those jobs and would feel inconvenienced at the added wait time.

Imagine all the other situations where people make up their minds and take a stand on problems that only need a little more thought, a little critical thinking.

The Old Protection Racket

Imagine this. You deicide to open a little business, maybe a retail store. Business is going fine.

One day some tough-looking guys show up at your door and walk up to the counter. But they are not customers. The one guys says, with mock innocence,"You got a nice little business here. It would be a shame if anything happened to it." You agree that it would be a shame if anything happened to it. The tough guy explains that to ensure you stay in business, you will periodically get to pay out what "the boss" determines to be a fair amount. If you fail to pay enough or pay on time, there will be consequences. 

It seems like a scene from a noire movie from years ago. But wait! A variation of this is happening today to every small business (and every individual). It's called income tax. 

As we approach the middle of April, consider the parallels. You have to pay an amount determined to be fair by powers over which you have no control. If you don't pay enough or don't pay on time, you can  face fines, penalties and, in extreme cases, worse. They can destroy your "nice little business." They can hassle and harass you until you pay, and you can't even call the cops - they are the cops!

Consider also all the small businesses that were forced to go under without the government having to resort to the tax code. Governments told them what they could and couldn't do, who they could and couldn't serve, based on some vague, questionable public health concerns. In Michigan you could shop for groceries, but the same store could not sell other items, for example, home improvement and gardening supplies.

The only difference between this loss of freedom through forced compliance and the good old protection racket is that in the latter case, we didn't elect "the boss." But the people of Michigan, and many other places, are apparently OK with this intrusion on their freedom as they reelected the same bosses (or their close  associates).

Do Seatbelts Really Save Lives?

 A little over a year ago, I retired this blog with a final summary. But I just can't keep quiet about some of the craziness out there.

I know the news agencies thrive on picking and choosing what they tell us and then telling us in a way that supports their political narrative. That can be expected. But when they, apparently unwittingly, present real information in the form of misleading headlines, it appears someone is not thinking things through.

Recently CBS (and others) came out with this news story about inadequate seatbelt warnings. The headline reads, "47% of people killed were not wearing a seatbelt." This gives people who do not want to wear their seatbelts a perfect argument that 53% percent of people killed were wearing a seatbelt - very little difference. So what's the big deal? The headline is not only not persuasive, it can be turned on itself to draw the exact opposite conclusion.

What needs to be said is that about 10% of people choose not to wear their seatbelt, but people not wearing seatbelts account for almost half the people killed in auto accidents. That means your chance of dying are about nine times higher if you don't buckle up. That's quite a difference from the implied comparison of 47% to 53%!

With use of seatbelts actually declining in recent years, wasn't anybody at CBS paying attention to the possible misinterpretation of their message? Poorly presented news is little better than fake news.

Final Summary

“The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars / But in ourselves….” (Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene III, L. 140-141)

 

I have spent the last nine and a half years posting over 1000 entries here with clear examples on the same subject: Behavior has consequences. We reap what we sow.

 

Life in America resembles a buffet counter where people fill their plates, then sit down to complain about the meal. Their money problems, weight problems and so many others are blamed on the environment or big business and deceptive advertising: “The clown made me eat fast food; Saturday morning cartoons made me buy too many toys for the kids!” Then they expect the government to bail them out with new rules, restrictions and handouts. Objections are met by expert testimony that willpower is short-term or that chemicals in the sofa are making people fatter.

 

Tolerance used to mean listening politely to other points of view. Today it means accepting and excusing weakness, failure and dysfunctional behavior, while silencing the opposition. Therefore, instead of letting citizens learn from the consequences of their choices, we bail them out over and over. Lack of standards and low expectations are described as compassion as the government rewards bad behavior.

 

Without a strong emphasis on critical thinking, our prehistoric brains have not been able to evolve and adapt as quickly as our technology has advanced. Accelerating technical development over the last few decades has left us exposed to hacking, phishing, identity theft, trolls, cyber-bullies, doxing, politically-inspired boycotts, canceling, new addictions and other threats unheard of just a few years ago. People struggle to keep up with their smartphones and computers. We have apps that allow us to keep track of everything “on the fly” leaving no time to relax or relate to others. Technology has led to both sophisticated weapons systems and laws that prohibit crossing the street or driving a car while texting. 

 

An accepted philosophy is, "If it saves one life, it's worth it." This only leads to more restrictions to our freedom. Do we want to devolve into a society where we are all in figurative straight jackets to keep us from ever harming others or ourselves? Freedom and responsibility are the alternative but no one has the guts to expect and promote those ideas.

 

The culture has evolved from one of self-reliance and independence to one where every need becomes a right, including the right not to be confronted or offended.

 

In short, Americans, regardless of education level, act as if the government is always there to bail them out, some magic money tree will buffer them from any negative economic activity, where all their problems are someone else’s fault with an easy answer or magic pill or supplement or device for any condition – real or imagined -- any failure can be blamed on unfavorable conditions or some evil power brokers. They assume every appliance/convenience has been around forever and would be impossible to live without. 

It is that mindset, ignoring the five key dimensions, not the government or political divisiveness or capitalism or systemic bias, that threatens our way of life.

 

If you don’t believe me, take a look at the last 1000 posts for clear examples.

A Nation Divided

Well, here we are again; behavior has consequences. Poor personal behavioral choices grow into societal problems.

 

For four or five years, responsibility for a divided America has been pinned on Donald Trump. The media and the opposition party led the way, giving him no credit and all the blame. Citizens were drawn in and equally divided by the merciless news coverage and personal attacks on one side and by the bombastic self-promotion and polemic tweets on the other. The media expect everyone to agree that he had not one single redeeming quality or made one good policy decision? 

 

There certainly was a middle ground, but no one was interested in finding it. After the 2020 election, those who claimed to be distressed by the Trump-inspired divisiveness did not let up on their mocking, criticism and name-calling, while those backing the president were equally combative. Neither acted as if unity was an important goal. It's like a habit they can’t seem to break. Irreconcilable differences drive the chatter on social media and in the streets. 

 

Looking dispassionately at the record reveals that President Trump made some good decisions and some terrible ones. Employment and the economy improved at a rapid pace. Operation Warp Speed cleared the way for a rapid approval of vaccines. There's more peace in the world with fewer American troops overseas. But frequently his personal behavior was appalling. 

 

No doubt President Biden will likewise make some good decisions and some poor ones. Those on his side will praise the successes; those on other side will heap on the criticism.

"The line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either – but right through every human heart -- and through all human hearts.”  – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, from The Gulag Archipelago. 

Unfortunately, Americans are not in the mood for a nuanced, nobody's perfect, stance toward our leadership. They are fighting mad and will continue to choose insults over rational debate. The media revels in this attitude, and they will do everything they can to promote and stir it up to keep their ratings high and their audience on edge. By abandoning perspective, discipline and critical thinking, we allow ourselves to be whipped up into these ideological frenzies.

We can choose to be influenced by these one-sided presentations or see them for what they are – blatant manipulation and propaganda. In many cases, journalism has been replaced by editorializing pretending to be reporting along with outright scare tactics. Americans could stop reacting, take control and demand better, but they don't seem interested.

 

Yes, the nation is divided with no end in sight, but it’s no one’s fault but our own.

We Are All Doomed

It’s not nuclear war, population explosion, the Chinese economy or Russian hackers, not from Iran joining North Korea as an irresponsible nuclear power. Forget climate change or which party is in power. We are doomed instead by a disregard for the five dimensions, which leads to poor individual and societal decisions yielding unfavorable consequences. Just look around.

 

In the past the same technologies endured for centuries. Sons did the same work as their fathers and grandfathers. The lot of children was the same as that of their parents. Today, jobs disappear or change radically on a regular basis as new technologies require new skills and habits.

 

Computers moved from occupying a room to a desk to a lap to a pocket in less than 40 years. As each new modern convenience arrives, the time to adapt becomes shorter and shorter. We are doomed because Americans seem unable to use that new power wisely, partially because, as Stephen Hawking put it, “we still have the instincts…that we had in the caveman days.” 

 

Suppose a time traveler told Congress in 1900, “The automobile looks promising, but in a hundred years, building and maintaining roads will cost $150 billion annually. Cars will contribute to major environmental problems and lead to millions of unproductive hours in delays and congestion. Annual traffic deaths will surpass 30,000 by 1946, climb to over 50,000 by 1970 and never again fall below 30,000.” Cars would have been banned; we’d still be riding horses.

 

When automobile-related death rates did drop, the change came not from behavior, but technology and regulations: lap belts, shoulder belts, airbags and improved car design. As people felt safer, behavior got sloppier: speeding, texting, forgetting the children in the back seat. Technology brings new miracles every day, as users become more careless and irresponsible.

 

Similarly, electronic communication advanced as email, social media, Zoom and many other tools brought us together more efficiently. But they quickly spawned negative behavior. People fell off cliffs trying to get more impressive photos. Teens challenged others to dangerous stunts and bullied around the clock.

 

Social media became a better way to send anonymous death threats to strangers, to insult and intimidate, to organize mobs, to silence or cancel individuals and get them fired, to boycott companies. Instead of communicating respectfully, we make up our minds without verifying facts and use our position to express hatred toward “the other side.” Being right is more important than having a relationship.

 

Technology gives us more free time, but we spend it virtue signaling or passing along snide comments. On-line fighting, mindless entertainment and superficial interests crowd out substantive problem solving and real communication. Cute pets go viral. A 7-year-old has 17 million followers with 26 billion views of toy reviews to the tune of $22 million per year while big cities have thousands of homeless people on the streets and multiple murders every weekend. 

 

Everyone should be happier, but that’s not the case. Modern conveniences leave Americans time to develop new addictions and imaginary ills. The medical community is complicit, adding new conditions to the list of diagnoses: occupational burnout declared a medical problem by WHO and obesity called a chronic disease by JAMA. People demand comfort animals on airline flights, and college students protest against offensive material and insufficient coddling. People embrace the  victim role rather than expecting to work through their own problems.

 

Stress is rampant. Levels of depression and suicide are up. A new book tells us, “One in five American adults are taking a drug for a psychiatric problem.” In an effort to overcome boredom, we buy so much stuff that the storage industry has new facilities popping up everywhere – then we buy books about how to declutter. 

 

Many serious diseases have been all but wiped out, but some disparage vaccinations and impatiently turn to charlatans selling products based on fairy-tale science: ancient medicine, therapeutic touch, essential oils, homeopathy and other magic potions to cure minor aches and pains. One mother, following social media guidance, fed her sons bleach to cure their autism. The authorities didn't step in because that’s not considered child abuse, but letting kids walk to school or the park unsupervised is.

 

How many Americans could survive the everyday hardships of just a century ago? Living without cell phones seems unbearable. Try giving up cars, indoor plumbing, central heating and electricity. 

 

Each new breakthrough has both benefits and dangers. We take the former for granted and accept the latter as merely a side effect. We bumble along as artificial solutions hide the urgency. 

 

This lax behavior as the world changes around us does not work. The five key dimensions are shunned, considered passé. Don’t understand economic principles; don’t think critically; don’t be disciplined and responsible; and don’t have perspective. New technology and the government will solve everything – until they don’t.