We Are All Doomed

It’s not nuclear war, population explosion, the Chinese economy or Russian hackers, not from Iran joining North Korea as an irresponsible nuclear power. Forget climate change or which party is in power. We are doomed instead by a disregard for the five dimensions, which leads to poor individual and societal decisions yielding unfavorable consequences. Just look around.

 

In the past the same technologies endured for centuries. Sons did the same work as their fathers and grandfathers. The lot of children was the same as that of their parents. Today, jobs disappear or change radically on a regular basis as new technologies require new skills and habits.

 

Computers moved from occupying a room to a desk to a lap to a pocket in less than 40 years. As each new modern convenience arrives, the time to adapt becomes shorter and shorter. We are doomed because Americans seem unable to use that new power wisely, partially because, as Stephen Hawking put it, “we still have the instincts…that we had in the caveman days.” 

 

Suppose a time traveler told Congress in 1900, “The automobile looks promising, but in a hundred years, building and maintaining roads will cost $150 billion annually. Cars will contribute to major environmental problems and lead to millions of unproductive hours in delays and congestion. Annual traffic deaths will surpass 30,000 by 1946, climb to over 50,000 by 1970 and never again fall below 30,000.” Cars would have been banned; we’d still be riding horses.

 

When automobile-related death rates did drop, the change came not from behavior, but technology and regulations: lap belts, shoulder belts, airbags and improved car design. As people felt safer, behavior got sloppier: speeding, texting, forgetting the children in the back seat. Technology brings new miracles every day, as users become more careless and irresponsible.

 

Similarly, electronic communication advanced as email, social media, Zoom and many other tools brought us together more efficiently. But they quickly spawned negative behavior. People fell off cliffs trying to get more impressive photos. Teens challenged others to dangerous stunts and bullied around the clock.

 

Social media became a better way to send anonymous death threats to strangers, to insult and intimidate, to organize mobs, to silence or cancel individuals and get them fired, to boycott companies. Instead of communicating respectfully, we make up our minds without verifying facts and use our position to express hatred toward “the other side.” Being right is more important than having a relationship.

 

Technology gives us more free time, but we spend it virtue signaling or passing along snide comments. On-line fighting, mindless entertainment and superficial interests crowd out substantive problem solving and real communication. Cute pets go viral. A 7-year-old has 17 million followers with 26 billion views of toy reviews to the tune of $22 million per year while big cities have thousands of homeless people on the streets and multiple murders every weekend. 

 

Everyone should be happier, but that’s not the case. Modern conveniences leave Americans time to develop new addictions and imaginary ills. The medical community is complicit, adding new conditions to the list of diagnoses: occupational burnout declared a medical problem by WHO and obesity called a chronic disease by JAMA. People demand comfort animals on airline flights, and college students protest against offensive material and insufficient coddling. People embrace the  victim role rather than expecting to work through their own problems.

 

Stress is rampant. Levels of depression and suicide are up. A new book tells us, “One in five American adults are taking a drug for a psychiatric problem.” In an effort to overcome boredom, we buy so much stuff that the storage industry has new facilities popping up everywhere – then we buy books about how to declutter. 

 

Many serious diseases have been all but wiped out, but some disparage vaccinations and impatiently turn to charlatans selling products based on fairy-tale science: ancient medicine, therapeutic touch, essential oils, homeopathy and other magic potions to cure minor aches and pains. One mother, following social media guidance, fed her sons bleach to cure their autism. The authorities didn't step in because that’s not considered child abuse, but letting kids walk to school or the park unsupervised is.

 

How many Americans could survive the everyday hardships of just a century ago? Living without cell phones seems unbearable. Try giving up cars, indoor plumbing, central heating and electricity. 

 

Each new breakthrough has both benefits and dangers. We take the former for granted and accept the latter as merely a side effect. We bumble along as artificial solutions hide the urgency. 

 

This lax behavior as the world changes around us does not work. The five key dimensions are shunned, considered passé. Don’t understand economic principles; don’t think critically; don’t be disciplined and responsible; and don’t have perspective. New technology and the government will solve everything – until they don’t.

Critical Thinking in Crisis

American critical thinking is hard to find and completely disappears in the face of a crisis. During the virus scare last spring, two types of info emerged. One, often from the medical professionals, was the calm reasonable kind. It was right to be careful, practice social distancing, wash hands frequently and wear a mask. That message was typically drowned out by the breathless, panicky pandemic warnings seen on the news.

 

We got the daily numbers of cases and deaths. We watched stories of people hoarding Purell, toilet paper and water. During the first week of the 15 days of voluntary lockdown, there were a shortage of coconut water and cellphone videos of fights in grocery stores over paper goods! Even before the disease got to the US, diners shunned Chinese restaurants. Then we were asked to stay in and practice social distancing, but some college students on spring break and others couldn’t be bothered. Today’s fun and freedom took precedence over the possible spread of the disease tomorrow or in a few weeks.

 

On the first Monday that the schools closed to protect students, I went to my local grocery store to pick up a prescription. It was overrun with parents who brought their school-aged children shopping. Did they think a good activity to keep them “isolated” and protected was a family shopping trip?

 

Day 12 brought this from CBS News: “Egg prices triple in 3 weeks amid coronavirus panic shopping.” This wasn’t price gouging; it was a genuine shortage. At the same time the price of regular gasoline dropped to around two dollars a gallon, also a result of supply and demand. Most people were driving much less and, for some reason, stocking up on eggs. Only the first makes logical sense. The CBS headline got it right, calling the run on hand sanitizer, paper products, bottled water and eggs “panic buying.”

 

Politicians and media commentators capitalize on this tendency toward fear and panic, encouraging the same reaction to win elections on one hand or to keep ratings up on the other. It has gotten progressively worse. Manufactured fear quickly turns to anger, then to hatred and to more fear. It makes people easier to control. Thus, politicians count on citizens leaving their brains outside the polling place and voting based on fear and hatred while the media counts on them to be glued to the TV for the next shocking update. Since we fail to remain calm and rational, we no longer receive calm, rational messages.

 

The same kind of "thinking" applies to everyday situations as technology gets more and more sophisticated and the people using it don't. We discover nuclear power and use it for bombs and submarines: but try to use it to produce pollution-free electric power and NO! No one can be serious about climate change and not be a advocate for nuclear power. Chlorine gas is deadly; chlorine in a swimming pool is safe. Nuclear bombs are deadly; nuclear power plants are safe. But the opposition is led by politicians and activists who are either well intentioned and ignorant or who have a financial interest in alternative energy sources. Regardless, they use fear and panic to sell their position, and it works.

 

The internet and cell phones allow rapid communications and information, but they lead to a lack of privacy, more sophisticated scams, cyber-bullying, targeted marketing for legitimate and bogus products, a mindset of finding people guilty before evidence is submitted and without a hearing. This technology which has so many positive applications, is used to incite riots and demonstrations and to spread misinformation and whacko theories.

 

We have more food, and people are overeating. We have more prosperity, and people are going broke. We have more leisure, and people are more stressed. We vote based on fear and hatred. We never calm down to think things through. That’s the America we live in.

How Are We Addicted?

Let me count the ways. In fact, in the spirit of perspective everyone is invited to give this addiction issue some thought.

With the media and politicians making so much fuss about the opioid epidemic, it’s easy to overlook the other ways we have become addicted.

Smartphones would be a good place to start. I read recently that eighty-seven per cent of smartphone users go to sleep and wake up with their phones, phones that they touch, swipe or tap on average over 2,600 times a day.

This USA Today article emphasizes the negative affect smartphone use can have on sleep patterns. That should be obvious, but the frightening statistics are at the beginning of the piece. “Nearly 7 in 10 children, or a slightly lesser percentage than their parents, kept their mobile device either in bed or within easy reach. And 29% of the younger group actually sleeps with the device, compared to 12% of parents.” In addition, “36% of teens wake up at least once during the night to check the device; about 1 in 4 parents do likewise.”

This is not new. The Business Insider had the same warning with similar statistics at the end of 2012, over six years ago, and the number of users has increased greatly since then. The same was reported at a site called constant contact three years later, and at uberguxmo at the end of the following year.

From sleep we move on to exercise. In another piece USA Today reports that technology may be ruining our workouts. In one extreme example, a woman talks about walking out of the gym if she forgets her fitness tracker at home or if the battery dies. They also report, “Experts say that fitness trackers can motivate us to get moving, however, unfavorable readings can lead to low self-esteem and feelings of guilt. Studies show that smartphones encourage people to hit the gym, while also inhibiting their ability to do so safely and efficiently.” One fitness instructor reports, “when you use your cellphone while resistance training, you’re actually doing less…you’re more likely to spend more time overall engaging in exercise if you left the device at home.”

This need to have smartphones or some other device at hand keeps increasing. The developers come up with a new app or feature that encourages users to turn over control of their lives bit by bit. Ads about taking your entertainment with you are ubiquitous. Banks and credit cards encourage customers to check their balances on the go. There’s even an app to tell when to take a break and get up to move around when we have spent too much time on the computer getting that adrenalin rush from likes, shares or hateful comments from like-minded friends.

We have subcontracted our memories to technology, storing facts and information in the cloud instead of the brain – use it or lose it? Students will argue that all facts are like phone numbers, they don’t have to remember them because they can always look them up from anywhere in the world. But facts are not knowledge; facts are not wisdom.

Years ago, if you had seen someone at the grocery store holding the side of his head or talking to the air, you would have thought he was sick or crazy. Today you just know he left the house with an incomplete shopping list.

With dependence on GPS capabilities, fewer Americans can use a map to find their destination.

Congress is considering a law to control robocalls, knowing that the lure has become so great that people are unable to ignore calls from unknown or blocked numbers. They answer and then are irritated.

Cities are passing laws about texting and walking. Why was there no need for laws about reading a book while crossing the street?

What began as a convenience, has made us dependent. The pity is that instead of being appreciative, we take the new technology for granted, just as we have become so complacent about electricity, indoor plumbing, air travel, air conditioning, microwaves, dishwashers and all the other conveniences we inherited from the last century.

Someone is Always Watching

While no one is paying attention, our privacy slowly slips away. We have at our fingertips all kinds of new technology that makes life so much easier and more convenient. At the same time, it puts everyone in a position to be held accountable for every mistake they make.

This was brought home to me by two stories on the same day this week on CBS This Morning. The first was about new technology in cars, and the second about a controversial photograph.

The auto technology story is very interesting. The new touch screens on some of the higher end cars help with navigation for regular trips as well as for emergencies. If the car is low on gas, it will direct the driver to the nearest service station and allow payment from inside the car and allow occupants of the car to order food from the snack bar inside. The Wi-Fi modem also allows drivers to make reservations on the way to a destination.

This sounds very convenient, but all that convenience comes at a price. While drivers take advantage of these new gadgets, the car is recording all kinds of data with “the power of 20 personal computers and [it] can process up to 25 gigs of data every hour – some of it beamed back” to the manufacturer. 

The data includes not only driving habits, but also personal preferences. There is so much data that experts estimate that the data stream will soon be more profitable to carmakers than the car itself. Information about purchases can be sold to advertisers who may also pay to put promotions on the screen. Drivers can now voluntarily share data with insurance companies to take advantage of good driving habits and secure a lower rate.

If people don’t fight to keep this information voluntary, however, think of how fast it can get out of control. This, like the cell phone, is one more source for law enforcement in case of crashes, other motor vehicle incidents or criminal investigations. It is a possible source for insurance investigations or rate setting, an additional source for spam (disguised as targeted advertising) and many other problematic scenarios as the cars record location, stops, speed, erratic driving, hard-braking and driver eyelid movements with inside cameras. 

All this seems harmless and some of it is even good, leading to better safety and maintenance, but make one mistake…. Your car is spying on you.

But spy-like technology is not only in your car: it’s everywhere. The second story was about the prom photo from Baraboo, Wisconsin where a group of 30 high school boys seemed to be making a Nazi salute. The staged photo from last May was posted to Twitter last Sunday and has sparked “international outrage.” 

CBS didn’t identify who posted it or find out why it would be posted six months after the fact. According to one of the students who didn’t participate, the photographer only said, “Raise your hand,” and he thought the idea was just a joke on the part of some his classmates. The photographer denies the charge against the boys saying it was supposed to show them waving to their parents. No one talked to any of the other students to find out their intentions. But it’s too late, as our wonderful technology instantly allowed people around the world to be shocked and outraged.

It is without a doubt that CBS and other news outlets picked up on this story for the shock value. But is it really shocking that a bunch of high school boys would participate in this kind of tasteless, insensitive horseplay? And it wasn’t even premeditated, as was the case of Prince Harry wearing a Nazi uniform to a party when he was two or three years older than these kids. But the outrage merchants never cut anybody any slack. (It’s a good bet none of these boys will be eligible to serve on the US Supreme Court forty years from now.)

Remember, no one is allowed to make mistakes (or bad jokes) anymore. Someone or something is always watching, recording or posting, eager to spread or sell the information. Scary!

Why Is This So Important?

The behavioral model is very important for a number of reasons.  One is that the focus on behavior moves the discussion away from personal attacks.  If a person’s behavior is good, it is recognized as such, to encourage more of the same.  If a person’s behavior is poor, the discussion is not about attitude, motives or intentions; it’s about what changes to behavior will make him or her more successful.

Another important aspect of the model is the insistence that we all improve behavior in the five key dimensions.  This is no longer optional.  The world is getting more complex at an accelerated rate.  We cannot face that complexity with the same casual approach that suited our ancestors even a few generations ago.

Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman of Alphabet’s board of directors, the parent company of Google, made an interesting observation at a technology conference in 2010:  “Every two days now we create as much information as we did from the dawn of civilization up until 2003.”  And that was 7 years ago!  He added that he doesn’t believe people are ready for what’s coming in terms of technology.  Of all that information how much is accurate or even useful?  Yet we are exposed to so much more every day at an increasingly alarming pace and must cope with it.

How did our grandparents deal with the fear of phishing emails or identity theft, traffic light cameras or drones and other invasions of privacy?  They didn’t.  Was anyone concerned about teen cyber-bullying or “sexting” even a few years ago?  In years gone by we had locks on our doors instead of security systems, and we thought hacking meant you had a bad cough, not that your savings or personal information might have been compromised.  No one was “addicted” to their “device.”  The frequency and stress level over the latest health news or food warnings were significantly lower.   The world didn't screech to a halt when the computers crashed.  And today credit cards, home equity loans and other financial tools make it so much easier to go into debt and stay there.

What about the avalanche of advertising we face?  The ad-blocker on my browser counts the ads as it blocks them.  One day I made note of the time as I caught up on (and stored and disposed of) personal email.  In 30 minutes the software blocked 97 ads.  That’s someone trying to sell me something at a rate of more than 3 times per minute.  Advertising exposure within our society is exploding.

Here is another example.  Last week I received an email telling me I may be a “Class Member” in a lawsuit against Staples “if between March 24, 2009 and April 25, 2017, you [1] bought a Rewards-eligible product and a non-Rewards eligible product in the same transaction, [2] used an item-specific coupon on the non-Rewards eligible product, and [3] were negatively impacted by Staples’ pro rata coupon accounting.”  If I don’t want to opt out of the settlement and I submit a claim form, I would be “eligible to receive $10 in Staples Rewards.”  (Further reading told me the class representative – I think that means the guy who sued – will get $5,000 and the law firm will receive $500,000 in fees and cost.)

How in the world do I know if I was negatively impacted?  Should I pull out all my Staples receipts for the last eight years to check?  Just reading this and trying to understand it is not worth $10 of my time, no less filling out an online form.  Yet apparently this stuff is happening every day to punish companies for apparently shady activities, although they admit no wrongdoing and settle to avoid the hassle.

I read recently that if everyone took the time to read only the privacy policies on all the websites visited, the annual cost in lost work time would be over $780 billion.  And that doesn’t even address what rights we might be signing away when we check the box without reading the even longer “terms and conditions.”

We must face it.  The world is getting more complex at a speed nearly impossible to keep up with.  People think technology is wonderful as they play games on their phones, but the technology is a double-edged sword with significant dangers.  As the robots are coming for our jobs and the hackers are stealing our data, the degree of critical thinking, discipline, responsibility, economic understanding, and perspective that served humanity in the past will no longer cut it.  We must do better or be overwhelmed.

Self-driving Cars

You can hardly turn around these days without hearing or seeing news about self-driving cars.  NPR interviews a Google engineer.  CBS does a segment with a Honda engineer.  Science shows on TV bring updates from the US and Europe demonstrating the latest features.  This article, for example, tells about work between Ford and MIT to give cars “intuition,” the ability to detect not-yet-visible dangers.  This all seems wonderful, but critical thinking and economic understanding often lead to discovery of unintended consequences.  What could lie ahead in the case of self-driving cars?

There are several steps in development.  We already have backup cameras and collision-warning/braking devices on some higher-end cars.  Even today “current vehicles can self-park, self-drive in slow-moving traffic and redirect drivers around heavy traffic. The second step will see vehicles communicate with one another, allowing them to wirelessly link up and travel together to ease congestion.  The third and final step, according to Ford, will be fully autonomous vehicles.”  The ultimate goal is the elimination of all traffic accidents, saving over 30,000 lives a year.

Imagine all the cars moving down the road at the same speed, evenly spaced, in a smooth flow, anticipating each other’s movements while the passengers relax and read, text or sleep.  It will be like having a personal chauffeur or riding on a small train.  It sounds like a dream.  Children born 50 years from now will wonder why we ever wanted to spend all that stressful time behind the wheel.

Now think more broadly.  If they can do that with cars, what about trucks and busses – and what about all the jobs that go with them?  Will future Americans just hop into taxis with no driver and enter their ID and destination on a touchscreen?  Will that smooth flow on the highways also include driverless 18-wheelers moving freight from warehouses to stores?  Will trash trucks, which have already replaced some workers with a hydraulic lift, soon replace the driver too?  Could someone design a robot to deliver mail from an autonomous vehicle?  Wouldn’t school buses be safer being driven by the computer than by a human, school buses with closed circuit cameras and other systems so that the kids dare not stir out of their seats?  Will all these jobs, including those of traffic cop, highway patrol and parking monitors, go the way of the elevator operator?  What happens to the insurance agents, processors, and investigators, and lawyers whose jobs depend on road mishaps?

It’s a short step from this seemingly innocent and very promising technology to a scary science fiction scenario; and with the prospect of saving 30,000 lives a year, there is really no stopping it.