An Unlikely Future

A couple of interesting studies out of the University of Texas a few years ago cast a new light on the idea of autonomous (self-driving) cars. So far most people have been thinking only about the convenience of reading or legally talking on the phone while the car gets them to their destination or the fear of computers instead of humans behind the wheel.  But UT takes the idea in a couple of slightly different directions.

One group used computer simulations to investigate the effects of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), autonomous taxis, on the flow of traffic and on the need for personal vehicles.  They wanted to discover the dynamics of having an optimal number of Uber- or Lyft-type options, but without drivers, to satisfy the needs of an entire city.  

Personal vehicle inefficiencies arise from the fact that Americans have many more cars than they need.  Less than “17% of newer (10 years old or less) household vehicles are in use at any given time over the course of an ‘average’ day, even when applying a 5-minute buffer on both trip ends; this share falls to just 10% usage when older personal vehicles are included and no buffers applied.” That is a lot of wasted time spent sitting in a garage or parked on the street.

The simulation was for an average small city (like Austin, where UT happens to be located) with a fleet of self-driving taxis.  “Complete model results show how each base-case SAV serves approximately 31 to 41 travelers per day, with average wait times under 20 seconds. Less than 0.5% of travelers waited more than five minutes.”  During the rush hours more than 97% of vehicles were in use, 2% were en route and only 1% sat idle.  According to the model, one SAV could replace 11 personal vehicles, and customers would both save money and need never park a car again - at home, at work or at any destination.

Some of the benefits are obvious and some less so.  The waiting time is far better than a shuttle bus to airport parking. Transportation costs for customers are reduced by 50% to 75% when all costs are taken into account: fuel, maintenance, tires, insurance, downtown parking and depreciation.  Space in cities could be shifted from parking to other uses.  The vehicles could drive themselves to refuel/recharge, to cleaning stations and maintenance facilities, saving customers more time.  And more miles per vehicle would lead to faster fleet turnover, allowing earlier replacement of vehicles with cleaner and more fuel efficient models.

The second idea out of UT is more futuristic.  One professor proposes the idea of virtual intersections with no traffic signals or stop signs necessary.  He claims such systems would make travel safer, faster and more efficient.

As the autonomous vehicle approaches the intersection, it calls ahead to reserve a time to drive though.  A computerized intersection manager approves the request and times the interactions to allow safe passage. “This all happens very fast, and there is little stopped traffic.”

So there you have it, the unlikely future: cars buzzing along to the next destination with everyone relaxed, not worrying about traffic; personal garages converted into more living space and public garages converted into shops, offices or green space; with everyone saving money.  One problem is that it only works in cities with relative density.  Get into the suburbs and the country and it’s not so efficient.

Also, your car is more than a car.  It’s both a status symbol and a “big purse.”

Many get enjoyment out of the act of driving and take pride in showing off what a nice car they can afford. Can you picture a business tycoon trying to impress clients by squeezing them into the same kind of car everyone else is riding in – even given the ability to conduct undistracted business while riding to the destination?  And a wait of less than 20 seconds with the rare possibility of up to 5 minutes would still be too long for some.

A second objection is the storage value of the car.  It has all that junk in the back seat that you never got around to cleaning out.  It may carry your emergency hat, gloves, sweatshirt and umbrella, an extra energy bar in the console, and perhaps your favorite CDs or handgun in the glove box (depending on your state of residence and state of mind). 

These are ideas that look great on paper (or simulated on a computer), but likely won’t fly with the motoring public.  In some sense, that’s too bad.