Oops on the Flu Shots

It is interesting how, when people don’t agree with advice they receive, even very sound advice, they look for excuses to ignore that advice and do what they want.  A common example is the person who doesn’t want to quit smoking and ignores all the scientific evidence while citing as an example the 90-year-old grandmother who smoked all her life and is still going strong.

Now we get news from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that this year’s flu vaccine may not be as effective as expected.  The flu virus has mutated to a new and unanticipated strain that the vaccination doesn’t cover. 

This sometimes happens, but individuals and organizations like Natural News are quick to jump in with both feet to say, “See we told you so!”  The Natural News website flashes headlines saying:  "CDC issues flu vaccine apology: this year's vaccine doesn't work!”  They go further:  “For the first time we can remember, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are going on the record, saying the flu vaccine won't work this year.”  This is followed by an attack on the CDC accusing them of foolishly continuing to promote vaccination for this season, being in bed with Big Pharma, and renewing the same old anti-vaccine, mercury-scare story.

A more balanced report comes from Forbes with the headline:  “Your Flu Shot Might Not Work -- But Go Get One Anyway.”  In it they talk about the warning from the CDC that the development of the vaccine in the spring to try to anticipate the flu strains in the winter resulted in a poorer than usual match.  “As a result, just half of current flu cases match the available vaccine.”  It’s a long way from “won’t work this year” to just half.  In fact, the flu shots are never promoted as being 100% effective.  Many studies show the average to be between 60% and 75% depending on the year and the population tested.  One study in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded that, regardless of this inability to be 100% effective, “[v]accination against influenza has substantial health-related and economic benefits for healthy, working adults.”

In addition, the CDC never attempted to paint a different picture.  They were honest in a posting back in May of this year and renewed that honest approach by admitting their miscalculation.  That May posting is clear.  “During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating viruses, it’s possible that no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed. During years when there is a good match between the flu vaccine and circulating viruses, it’s possible to measure substantial benefits from vaccination in terms of preventing flu illness. However, even during years when the vaccine match is very good, the benefits of vaccination will vary across the population, depending on characteristics of the person being vaccinated and even, potentially, which vaccine was used.” 

Finally, the flu can be deadly.  "Over a period of 31 seasons between 1976 and 2007, estimates of flu-associated deaths in the United States range from a low of about 3,000 to a high of about 49,000 people.”  Vaccines are generally effective as well as safe.  “For more than 50 years, seasonal flu vaccines have had very good safety track records. Over the years, hundreds of millions of Americans have received seasonal flu vaccines. The most common side effects following flu vaccinations are mild.”

Of course, both those pieces of information about the danger of the flu and the safety of the vaccine come from the CDC, and some believe they are part of a big conspiracy to make pharmaceutical companies rich by selling shady products to citizens and insurance companies while adding to their already obscene profits.  Those of us who are not paranoid, though, will continue to get our flu shots even if they are not 100% guaranteed.  The minor inconvenience and cost (often zero) are worth it to be 50% sure.  Although they may be unpredictable at times, behavior really does have consequences.

Gas Prices

There is an eerie silence when the gasoline prices go down.  Most news articles these days concentrate on local changes, but the prices are going down across the county.  According to this source:  “With gas prices in some states already at or slightly below $3 per gallon, the rest of the country could follow suit before the turkey is served on Thanksgiving next month.”  Credit for this is laid at the feet of supply and demand:  a slowing of economic growth in China and other parts of the world along with a greater supply coming from the US due to the use of controversial fracking techniques.  Overall, though, the situation elicits few comments from the media and even less chatter from the community as a whole.

Contrast this with the situation not too long ago when gasoline prices took a dramatic rise.  We heard complaints from friends and neighbors.  There were letters to the editor in local newspapers about the greedy oil companies soaking the little guy to make obscene profits and making accusations of a conspiracy.  News reporters were turning up unusual examples of people trying to decide whether to fill the tank or buy groceries.  Now gas prices are down and you hear hardly a peep out of anyone.  (Is anyone putting aside the extra money, I wonder, to help put food on the table when the prices go back up?)

Here we are right before an election.  If the situation were reversed we would surely hear some politicians telling us about greedy Big Oil getting windfall profits and overpaying their executives, and how, if we elect them, they would institute additional taxes on these profits to give us the feeling of getting a bit of revenge against those who would abuse us in this way.  The greedy speculators in the oil and gas futures market would also get their share of the blame.  Today, with prices moving in the opposite direction, there is only silence.

When the prices go up outside forces have ample opportunity to manipulate us into feeling sorry for ourselves, feeling like victims.  It is such a familiar pattern that many of us now begin to do it to ourselves without any prompting.  But when the prices go down, it’s supply and demand.  Fascinating!

Busting Conspiracy Myths

There is always a lot of ranting about big oil profits and the fact that they are spending it to buy back their own stock rather than creating jobs or going after more oil.  Whenever the price jumps, the “pain at the pump” brings out accusations of Big Oil gouging, conspiring to fix prices.  Years ago people would swear there was a connection with the Bush administration, implying that some government higher-ups were profiting personally from this plot.

Critical thinking requires research before jumping to conclusions or buying into the arguments of known opponents.  According to Forbes, Big Oil’s average profit from gasoline is about 7 cents per gallon.  This website confirms the 7 cent figure but goes on to blame the current administration:  “Gas prices are increasing because of costs of new regulations by the Obama administration and failed policies in the Middle East.”  Apparently presidents always get blamed by one side or the other.

 Overall oil companies make a lot of money, around $100 billion for Exxon, Chevron and BP together, but they do it by selling a lot of gasoline and other products.  For a good comparison use profit as a percent of revenue; for every dollar we give them, how much do they get to keep?  For Big Oil the answer is about 10 cents.  And who benefits?  “Compared with a small fraction of oil stocks (about 1.5%) owned by corporate management, the vast majority of such investments are held by average Americans, primarily via retirement accounts.”  The latest news on Big Oil, Exxon and Chevron, is that they are experiencing cost increases greater than price increases.  If they really controlled the price of oil and gasoline, how could this happen?

The airline industry is another recipient of constant complaints and overall disapproval.  They keep charging us for things that were once free:  checked luggage, in-flight snacks, extra legroom, etc.  Then they shrink the lavatories to squeeze in a few more seats.  Prices for flights change from hour to hour, and it seems like no two people are paying the same amount for a ticket on the same flight.  It’s ridiculous, frustrating and maddening!

It's no wonder we suspect them of ripping off passengers.  That’s why I was very surprised to learn that in 2012 they earned only about 37 cents in profit per enplaned passenger – including all fees.  That’s about the cost of the peanuts you don’t get for free any more.  Overall they lost money in the first decade of this century.  (See the exhibits.)  This year may be better with projected profits around $4 per passenger.

Now McDonalds, Apple and Starbucks earn about double the rate (profit/revenue) of oil companies and many times more than airlines with substantially less risky businesses, yet we don’t hear conspiracy theories and price-fixing accusations about those companies.  (For the quarter ending June 30, McDonalds earned $1.4 billion on revenues of $7.08 billion.  That’s 19.8% of sales.)  It’s curious how the concept of enemies can spread through society with so little effort to challenge or verify the data.