On one hand, many Americans act like they have all the
answers. There never seems to be a
shortage of strong opinions. On the
other hand, they also act like everyone else is smarter than they are. They follow the latest trends and fashions,
like a flock of sheep. A favorite
advertising and political enticement confidently declares that everyone else is
buying this product or thinking this way, so you should too. You hear this so often simply because it
works.
If you don’t believe me, listen to the ads, look at the
billboards, read the newspapers or listen to your friends. We are confronted with hundreds of ads and
political messages every day and the emphasis, in many cases, is how excited
everyone else is about a movie, book, product or policy decision. Why would they report the box office winners
at the movies every week? Why should we
care?
This list of headlines shows typical examples of this
popular-equals-good pitch: “The top
iPhone and iPad apps;” news and Internet searches that are “Trending Now;” “the
highly anticipated iWatch is expected to become a best-selling device with
consumers”; “be the first of your friends to see the hottest trending videos on
youtube”; best-selling or most-popular: books, cars, dogs, food items, soft
drinks, and diet aids. Likewise in
politics the polls are so important, not just to tell what people are thinking
or which way voters are leaning on a particular issue, but also to influence
those who have not made up their minds or locked in their choices.
Here is an interesting experiment conducted in 2006 by researchers at Princeton University. They
created a number of artificial “music markets’’ and allowed 14,341
participants to rate and download 48 songs that were previously unknown to
them. About half of the participants
were asked to preview and download songs based only on their tastes and
preferences. This independent ranking served as a
proxy for the quality of a song. The rest
of the participants were randomly divided into eight groups. They reviewed the same songs but were also allowed
to see how often others within their group had downloaded each of the songs. Some saw the songs listed in random order with
download totals. Others saw an
ordered list, top to bottom, showing of the preference of others within their
group.
Results clearly showed the power of social influence, which in this case was
restricted to information about the choices of others (not advertising,
social media or other sources of information).
All eight social-influence groups “exhibit greater inequality – meaning
popular songs are more popular and unpopular songs are less popular - than the
world in which individuals make decisions independently.” In addition, the top-to-bottom listing, as we
so often see in the press, told a larger story:
“as individuals are subject to stronger forms of social influence, the
collective outcomes will become increasingly unequal.” Finally, "songs of any given quality can
experience a wide range of outcomes…In general, the best songs never do very
badly, and the worst songs never do extremely well, but almost any other result
is possible.” The more influence the players experienced, the more often they chose a song.
This led an author not involved in the study to comment: “In many domains people are tempted to think,
after the fact, that an outcome was entirely predictable, and that the success
of a musician, an actor, an author, or a politician was inevitable in light of
his or her skills and characteristics.
Beware of that temptation…Today’s hot singer is probably
indistinguishable from dozens and even hundreds of equally talented performers
whose names you’ve never heard.”
(Source: Thaler and Sullivan, Nudge.
Yale University Press, New Haven, 2008, p. 63.)
Those who reach stardom do so by riding a wave of popularity (or hype),
not necessarily by virtue of their unique or exceptional abilities.
Americans buy things and do things because others Americans
buy them or do them. Young people
declare their individuality by copying others, by following the crowd. They dress alike, talk alike, follow the same
entertainers, pierce their bodies and get tattoos. Ironically, they express their individuality
by being afraid to be different from their peer group so they can grow up to be
conformist adults, letting others tell them how they should look, what they
should drive, and what they should think. We have too few individuals,
non-conformists, or iconoclasts. Too few
who are willing to think for themselves, a situation that leads to our
accepting, even clamoring for, inferior products, services and political
leadership. Popularity can drive out quality without us noticing.
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