You don’t have to be psychic to depend on the fact that past
behavior is a good predictor of future behavior.
In late November, at the beginning of the Christmas
shopping season, I cited a few statistics about how not enough people had even
the recommended amount of emergency savings.
We also know and are reminded frequently that for so many Americans
college debt is high, retirement savings are non-existent and credit card debt
is thousands of dollars. Though this is
old news, well publicized and well understood, still I agreed with the
published predictions in the NY Times and Wall Street Journal that instead of
saving their windfall from low gasoline prices Americans would spend it on
extra trips and gifts for Christmas, once again trading their long-term
security for short-term satisfaction. I
suggested that people should look to the future and start saving those few
dollars or pay down a little of the debt to make their lives less stressful.
Now we are on the other side of the holiday season and what
do we find? Here’s what the USA Today says about the situation: “Retailers'
fourth-quarter results are riding on high expectations that cheaper gas led
consumers to splurge during the important holiday shopping season.” Furthermore they go on to quote a senior vice
president at Nielsen, the research company.
“People are less concerned about saving or paying down debt and more
willing to spend overall.” The Nielsen
survey did find that most reported saving some of the windfall, but “almost a
third said they'd spent it on entertainment or clothes.”
That most did pay down their debt, or at least told the
pollsters that they did, is a very good sign, but we should still be concerned
about the rest. It took far less than
one-third buying houses they couldn’t afford to set up the housing bubble of
the last decade; and when the future arrives for the non-savers, it is likely
they will be looking for someone to bail them out. We hear today about those unable to live on
Social Security alone, which was never the intent of the program, but no one
ever asks why they didn’t save money during their working years or retire so
soon. To do so would be labeled as being
heartless.
Economic understanding tells us that we are all
interconnected and there is no magic money tree. Do we want to be on the hook for others’ lack
of discipline today and irresponsible behavior tomorrow?
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