The Upside of Climate Change

Is the climate changing?  Of course the climate is changing.  It has been changing for the last six billion years.

Is it getting warmer?  The temperature trend seems to be in that direction, so there is no reason to doubt that it is also getting warmer.

The problem is that all the news reports seem to stress that a changing climate is a bad thing, that warmer is a bad thing, and that it’s entirely our fault.  Humans had the nerve to act in a way that’s destroying the earth and should feel guilty about it.  We are destroying the planet for our children and grandchildren.  Every additional temperature reading becomes breaking news.  And the President not signing a piece of paper in Paris somehow has an immediate negative effect. 

The argument continues that the changed climate will result in extremes – more cold days, more hot days, more storms and bigger storms.  Unfortunately, the data do not bear this out.   A graph in Wikipedia of the number of hurricanes affecting the US by decade clearly shows variability, not an upward trend.  Annual reported tornadoes compiled by NOAA from 1954 to 2014 shows the same.

Yet every time part of the US, especially the East Coast, experiences some weather extreme, an analyst, reporter or expert is sure to cite climate change.  This is a lazy argument.  Too hot weather proves climate change; too cold weather proves climate change; too windy weather shows the same, all the time implying that it’s a terrible thing, not just for those who built houses too close to the beach, but for everyone.  Critical thinkers should demand better evidence.

We are led to the conclusion that the climate we have is the best of all possible climates and that it’s down hill from here no matter what.  Isn’t there anything positive to be said about climate change?  As it turns out, there are at least a couple of potential benefits.

“Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.” (Source:  Lancet)

 Chris D. Thomas is a professor of conservation at University of York and “one of the world’s most influential ecologists” according to the biography at the end of his book Inheritors of the Earth.  On page 6 of that book he says, “More species like it hot than cold, and so the overall consequence of a warmer climate is to raise biological diversity in many parts of the world.”

So the possibility of fewer people dying because of the weather is a good thing.  Biological diversity is also considered a good thing.  Maybe the experts and the media should take some time out from their constant catastrophizing and handwringing to take a look at the bright side.  The climate has been changing for millions of years; humans have been adapting for tens of thousands of years.   Maybe it's not going to be as bad as the purveyors of doom-and-gloom predict.