Monday, August 17, 2020

Acting and Reacting

Is the world getting safer or more dangerous? Data about crime, wars and accidental deaths indicate that life this century is much safer than it was in the past. These events are very noticeable and easily measured. On the other hand, we often ignore or excuse less immediate dangers that arise as our interactions with the world become more complex.

As I have been describing behavioral examples of errors in the five key dimensions over the last 10 years, it becomes clearer that much of the human race is still attacking twenty-first century problems with cave-man level of skills. Just as the hunter-gatherers required immediate reactions to survive, when they heard a rustling in the bushes that may or may not be a snake or predator, humans retained those instincts, following a course of acting first and analyzing later. 

Likewise the practice of not trusting or even attacking people from a different tribe or with a different belief system carries over today in many forms. “My god is better than your god” is not necessarily ancient grounds for confrontation. It happens in a modified form daily on social media.

These instant reactions and mini-superstitions come to us immediately, before we have a chance to engage our critical thinking. Thus critical thinking is often omitted from our decision process, used only to justify or rationalize actions after the fact.

Several recent books describe this psychological phenomenon in detail: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman; Nudge, by Thaler and Sunstein; and The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg are among them. They tell how, as humans evolved, we developed mechanisms to be able to make quick decisions in times of panic or emergency. We react instantly, responding to emotional triggers often before we are aware of them. We are more comfortable following our established patterns of behavior. These programmed, intuitive reactions saved our ancestors, but they serve us poorly today.

That explains in part the need for COVID-19 bail out packages. According to Market Watch: “A shocking number of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.” One survey says it’s at least half, another estimates 74%, as “one in four families making $150,000 a year or more are living paycheck-to-paycheck” and three in ten families having no emergency savings. No wonder it’s a crisis! The article says people are struggling.

This problem keeps coming up year after year, yet there is no change. 

Apparently what people need is something called financial literacy. An article in Ideas.TED from late last year asks: How financially literate are you?” and tells “3 things you should know about your money.” These three things are not close to rocket science: knowing how much money is coming in vs. how much you are spending; knowing your credit score and knowing how much credit card debt you have. Do we really need seminars and newsletters to teach people how to spend less than they earn to have a little left over at the end of the pay period or to read a credit card bill? These are third-grade skills.

Don’t blame it on credit cards or the eagerness of banks to lend customers more money than they can afford to borrow. These excuses are a cop-out. But this problem arose only in the last half-century or so. The world gets increasingly complex while we still try to cope using our cave-man instincts, act now and analyze later.

Critical thinking does not come naturally. It’s hard work and can sometimes be unpleasant. But it’s increasingly needed to keep up with the new products and services that technology throws at us at an ever-accelerating pace.

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