Monday, October 8, 2018

The Paranormal

Is there any logical reason to believe in the claims of ESP and other paranormal powers? A few reasons come to mind to support skepticism.

First, I ran across this long list on Wikipedia. It shows a number of prizes offered, past and present, for proof of paranormal powers under controlled conditions. Many of the prizes were in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. The last column shows the outcome as “unclaimed” for all but two. The participants disputed those two but still failed to collect the prize.

If people really had psychic powers, you would expect to see a line at some of these tests. It would be easy money and vindication from all the skeptics.

But the catch is that they must show their skills under controlled conditions. That means, among other things, no outside help, no hidden wires or microphones and no hints from testers. The last is particularly frustrating to those who practice cold reading, a technique of throwing out general statements looking for encouragement from credulous customers and letting them lead the reader to a plausible story. Without these aids and distractions, everyone fails.

People also try to assign some magical force to coincidence. Something unusual or unexpected happens and they automatically think the universe is sending them a message. It reminds me of a feature on an Oprah show years ago about a young boy and young girl who were best friends in a Russian orphanage. They were adopted separately but were reunited by accident in a restaurant in Michigan. The audience was amazed, asking themselves “What are the odds?

Critical thinking tells us that although this particular occurrence was unusual and heartwarming, the odds of the producers of the Oprah Show looking for and finding any such extraordinary situation in a country with a population of over 330 million, each one eager to share stories of notable coincidences, borders on certainty. Social media proves that it is very likely that several unusual coincidences arise somewhere (and get posted) almost constantly. When you dream of a loss and something remotely resembling it happens, it is attributed to ESP. When nothing happens, there is no coincidence, and the dream is forgotten or discounted as just another bad dream. In the case of the “dream-come-true,” it is comforting to be able to feel some sense of control or connection.

Another example is represented by the man in the moon. The shadows on the moon’s surface are interpreted by the brain to resemble something familiar. Other cultures have seen a rabbit, the silhouette of a woman, a frog, a moose, a buffalo, or a dragon, instead of a face. This tendency to reinterpret random shapes as real pictures is called pareidolia. It was responsible a few years ago for the excitement over the face on Mars where a certain rock under certain lighting conditions looked like a human head. The same phenomenon is at work when someone sees Jesus or Elvis burned onto their toast or in a potato chip.

The question always comes up why people with real psychic powers don’t just go to Las Vegas and use their powers to win big at the roulette wheel. The answer provided is that people with those powers are too ethical to use them for such base purposes. They are more interested in using their powers to benefit humanity.

But couldn’t they benefit humanity a lot more by using their roulette winnings to set up charitable organizations? Couldn’t they benefit humanity more by warning of impending disasters? Where were all the psychics when the twin towers were destroyed or when the Mandalay Bay shooter was smuggling guns into the hotel? There must have been at least a small ripple in the ether. Being home to carefully calculated odds, Las Vegas is far more worried about shooters than they are about psychics.

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