Flashback - Ignoring The Facts

[This one comes from January 2012 and is still one of my favorites. People, who are involved in a test that proves that a $30 item is not effective, continue to insist on buying one. Note, they didn't just hear on TV or read on the internet that the item is bogus - they were actually involved in testing it and shown the results. It didn't work as advertised, but they still wanted one regardless of what their eyes were telling them because of all the hype they had heard elsewhere! Being swayed by marketing promotions and celebrity endorsements is not wise behavior.]

While looking for a different article on the Placebo Effect, I found this interesting video. As you know, the Placebo Effect causes people to recover or show improvement even when they are given only a fake remedy, the familiar sugar pill. The power of the mind is amazing.

I recall an article a number of years ago stating that the improvement within the control groups in certain drug studies increased as the power of the real medicines increased. They were getting the sugar pill but believed they were getting the latest, stronger medicine, so they experienced even better results. It was all psychological. It is easy to understand how this reaction could play into the hands of "snake oil" salesmen. They sell you a useless cure and let your mind do the rest. Then they get a few believers who help them sell more. That's why I always say, "Endorsements are not evidence."

Here is the  CBS News video testing the claims of a particular performance wristband, one endorsed by famous athletes, and touted to improve athletic performance. When test subjects were given the advertised wristband, their performance on physical and balance tests did improve. But when they were given a one-dollar replacement band and told it also was special, performance on physical and balance tests improved comparably. The video also explains how the bracelet company sets up tests to ensure the perception of improved performance.

The scariest part is the ending where, despite the fact that the $30-wristband claims had been debunked, shown to be no more effective than the $1 bands or even not wearing a wristband at all, the participants still wanted one!

This is not critical thinking! This is the kind of decision-making that leads people to spend money on worthless items instead of using it wisely. Then they wonder why they get into debt and can't afford to retire. It's the kind of thinking that leads us to vote for candidates based on endorsements or personal appearance or charisma instead of the leadership and ideas we need. It's the kind of thinking that contributes to the decline of America!

Who Do You Trust?

Why am I surprised?  I guess I am just not ready to become a complete cynic and write off the hope for the resurgence of critical thinking.  The latest example comes from an ABC article on the weather, of all things, one of the safest topics available for small talk.

Apparently rumors have been circulating on social media, Facebook and Twitter, that a storm predicted for tomorrow will drop 20 to 30 inches of snow on the Midwest.  This rumor was “rampant” before Saturday when the news appeared both on line and in print.  Indianapolis “and other Midwestern weather bureaus have been getting calls from people worried about dire storm predictions.”  The experts call these predictions "EXTREMELY premature & improbable.”

Anyone who regularly follows weather predictions from reputable sources knows that the National Weather Service and other experts rarely post expected snowfall (or rainfall) amounts earlier than the day before an event.  Probability percentages of precipitation change from one forecast to the next and are likely to be different from one source to the next – all the TV weather people have their own models and their own interpretations of those models.  That’s why any prediction by amateurs or hobbyists in January for a storm on February 4 is “EXTREMELY premature.”

It would be “EXTREMELY improbable” because the record snowfall for an entire month in Indianapolis, for example, is 30.6 inches.  The most snow to fall ever in a 24-hour period in Iowa and Nebraska is less than 30 inches.

These facts don’t seem to impede the spread of social-media rumors or deter people believing them enough to be worried nearly a week in advance.  Why turn to the experts when the information is readily available from your Facebook friends or celebrity tweets?  This is the same lack of critical thinking, the same blind faith that causes people to worry unnecessarily, foolishly and often irresponsibly about the dangers of vaccinations, to accept the efficacy of untested ancient oriental remedies and magic bracelets, to rely on the healing power of dietary supplements, to stress over non-existent poisons in our food supply, and, in general, lose sleep based on marketing and political hype and propaganda that challenges our ability to do simple research and flies in the face of common sense.

Incidentally, as of noon Monday, the snowfall predicted for Tuesday and Tuesday night is less than 1 inch for Indianapolis, about 3-5 inches for Chicago and 4-8 inches for Des Moines.  (Source: National Weather Service – http://forecast.weather.gov)

Performance Bracelets

While looking for a different article on the Placebo Effect, I found this interesting video.  As you know, the Placebo Effect causes people to recover or show improvement even when they are given only a fake remedy, the familiar sugar pill.  The power of the mind is amazing.  I recall an article a number of years ago stating that the improvement within the control groups in certain drug studies increased as the power of the real medicines increased.  They were getting the sugar pill but believed they were getting even stronger medicine, so had even better results – all psychological.  You can understand how this could play into the hands of "snake oil" salesmen.  They sell you a useless cure and let your mind do the rest.  They get a few believers who help them sell more.  That's why I always say, "Endorsements are not evidence."

Here is the  CBS News video testing the claims of a particular performance wristband, one endorsed by famous athletes, and touted to improve athletic performance.  When people were given the advertised wristband, performance on physical and balance tests did improve.  But when people were given a one-dollar replacement band and told it was special, performance on physical and balance tests improved comparably.  The video also explains how the bracelet company sets up tests to ensure the perception of  improvement.

The scariest part is the ending where, despite the fact that the $30-wristband claims have been debunked, shown to be no more effective than the $1 bands or in fact nothing at all, the participants still wanted one.  This is not critical thinking!  This is the kind of decision-making that leads people to spend money on worthless items instead of using it wisely, and then they wonder why they can't afford to retire.  It's the kind of thinking that leads us to vote for candidates based on endorsements or personal appearance or charisma instead of the leadership and ideas we need.  It's the kind of thinking that contributes to the decline of America!