Words Matter

I don’t watch many ads on TV, but I happened to see this one near the end of a football game last week. It was one of those public relations ads from Exxon Mobile telling what a wonderful job they were doing developing biofuel from algae. Someday this fuel will be used to power planes, ships and trucks “and cut their emissions in half.”

Wait a minute; something is not right here! Biofuels are carbon-based. When they burn, they emit mostly carbon dioxide. The only way to cut emissions in half is for the same amount of fuel to produce twice the energy as traditional diesel or jet fuel. That involves a factor called energy density.

Now biofuel is generally good. It comes from plants that extract CO₂ from the atmosphere. When biofuel burns it releases the same CO₂ back into the atmosphere, so it is considered to be carbon neutral. 

The downside is that first generation biofuels, such as ethanol, are produced from edible crops. They require a lot of space to grow and a lot of energy to plant, harvest and transport.

Biofuels processed from algae are a second-generation biofuel, similar to fuel made from the inedible and discarded part of a food crop, such as cornhusks or switch grass. The advantage is that food and fuel do not compete with each other, as when ethanol is made from corn.  And the production consumes “small amounts of energy while producing considerable fuel output.”

Other advantages are that algae production is efficient, in that, it can be grown “in almost any climate thanks to the open- or closed-tank approaches that are available today. As long as we can provide this natural product with enough sunlight to create photosynthesis, then it has the capability to grow quickly.” It is a renewable energy source that can be refined into a variety of products, and it can yield almost five times more fuel per acre than sugar cane or corn.

Two major disadvantages according to the same source are that it currently requires about 20% more energy to grow than it yields and production cost is still higher than the alternatives.

Exxon Mobile confronts the skeptics by citing partnerships with several major universities and a private firm to use gene technology and other research to build on the advantages and overcome many of the disadvantages. It looks promising, but they still “face some significant technical hurdles before biofuels production from algae will be possible at a significant commercial scale.”

The question remains about the claim of half the emissions. All fuel from wood and manure to jet fuel has a characteristic called energy density. “Energy density is the amount of energy stored in a given system or region of space per unit volume or mass.”  Gasoline has an energy density of about 45 megajoules per kilogram (MJ/kg). “Ethanol produces 30 megajoules/kilogram.” For that reason, a car will go farther on a gallon of pure gasoline than it will on a gallon of ethanol or any mix of ethanol and gasoline. Adding ethanol at the pump reduces MPG.

This 2011 paper from Stanford gives the energy density of algae-based biofuel at 20-25 MJ/kg, about half that of gasoline. Even if the research at Exxon Mobile’s partners could double it to equal that of gasoline or diesel, it would still be far short of their claim of cutting the emission of planes, ships and trucks in half. 

Deeper reading at the Exxon Mobile site gives the answer: “If key research hurdles are overcome, algal biofuels will have about 50 percent lower life cycle greenhouse gas emissions than petroleum-derived fuel.” The saving is not in emissions but in the energy expended during the entire production and delivery process.

The claim in the ad is inconsistent with that explanation thus is really inaccurate. Perhaps the advertising firm misunderstood, or the company just dumbed it down for football fans. In either case, I love it when I’m right!

Real American Solutions?

What are the real American solutions; what is real about them, and what are they solving?

First, what needs solving? The problem is that Americans are not satisfied with the direction of the country. This link leads to a graph of weekly Gallup Polls (with the data points below) showing “satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S.” from 1979 to the present. Unfortunately the graph is split into quintiles and has no 50% line making it hard to see a majority. But it would be reasonable to expect that if at least half the people are satisfied, we are doing OK.

The last time the number on the satisfied column reached even 40% was July 2005. We are going on 15 consecutive years with 60% or more dissatisfied. Herein lies the problem.

Furthermore, what are people dissatisfied with? The list is a familiar one and never seems to change: the obesity epidemic, retirement insecurity, drug and alcohol addiction, teen smoking and vaping, declining educational system and student performance, sleep deprivation, consumer fraud, smartphone addiction, science illiteracy, spiraling healthcare costs, deceptive advertising, media-driven fears and hype, health and financial scams, income inequality, frivolous lawsuits, gun violence, the demonization of big business and many more.

Life continues to grow more complex. Our children must be protected from Internet predators, school shooters, violent videogames, drugs, too much screen time, tobacco, faulty highchairs and car seats, laundry soap and other household chemicals, dangerous toys and insufficiently padded playgrounds. Adults must to be warned about the dangers of ladders, power tools, tobacco, alcohol and texting while driving (or walking). Students’ science and math scores are declining. Americans are eating too much, spending more screen time amusing and competing for attention on social media causing them to become angrier and more isolated and spending more money than they earn. Advertisers seem to invent new problems as quickly as they try to con us into buying their miracle products to cure the old ones.

It’s not just President Trump’s fault. The Gallup graph spans the administrations of eight presidents and 20 congressional elections. We seem to keep asking government to fix it; but if government could fix it, we should see some evidence of at least some progress over the past 40 years. In fact, government has been fighting a “war “on poverty and another on drugs for longer than that with nothing to show for it but a stable poverty level and an opioid epidemic. Government got involved in student loans and mortgages to what end? Government is the wrong American solution!

A careful review of the problems shows that most of them are caused by individual behaviors resulting in poor individual problems. The only reason they become national problems is that they spread and accumulate across society. People eat too much, spend too much and fall for advertising tactics, not because of the government or any other outside agent. They make choices. Make the opposite choice and get the opposite outcome, a favorable outcome.

As evidence of this, twice a week for almost 450 weeks, I have been giving examples of how unwise behavior in one or more of the five key behavioral dimensions leads to unhappy consequences, many of which are listed above. Wiser behavior in those dimensions may not solve everything, but it’s an excellent place to start. We can think and act our way out of most of those bad consequences, which is far superior to sitting back and waiting for someone else to bail us out, especially after seeing few positive results over the last 40 years.

Pursuit of Happiness?

Last week the news broke that Americans spent about $9 billion on Halloween. That’s over twice the budget of the entire National Park Service and included almost half a billion dollars on costumes for their pets.

My first thought on hearing this was that people must be feeling pretty good about their life and their personal economic situation if they are willing to spend so much celebrating what years ago used to be a time for homemade costumes for kids going door to door. Now it has become a full-fledged manufactured holiday along the lines of Valentines Day. 

The overall spending level on Halloween has been consistent for at least the last eight years.

But the original story decries it as out of control consumerism. The writer labels that much spending on a non-holiday as a sign of conspicuous consumption. “Conspicuous consumption is designed to show others you are rich, smart or important.” It used to be a case of having a bigger house or fancier car than the neighbors. Today it’s having a better picture of themselves or their pets on Facebook or Instagram and garnering more likes.

That is also the conclusion of this Fox Business article: “Social media 'pressure' drives Halloween spending.” Their conclusion is based on a survey showing that “48 percent [of millennials] admitted to purchasing Halloween items solely for posting online, and four in ten millennials felt a lot of pressure to spend that money.” They were not alone. Over thirty percent of the generations that bracketed them admitted to having the same motivation.

This idea of conspicuous consumption goes beyond dressing up for selfies as this Forbes article explains in: “What Handing Out Full Size Candy Bars on Halloween Says About You, According to Behavioral Economists.” Stores this year were stocking more packages of full-size candy bars in anticipation of the pressure to out-do or at least keep up with the neighbors. “Your Halloween treats can signal not just what you have, but aspects of your character, such as your generosity.” It’s about social signaling, how we try to shape what others think of us.

This whole dynamic, too, is amplified by social media, the way it sets expectations and the way it makes the spread of a reputation, positive or negative, so much faster and easier.

So it’s conspicuous consumption, a sign of insecurity, that drives people to dress the dog like a cat or a box of cereal. It doesn’t sound like they are spending for the sake of a good time or to celebrate happiness at all.

Finally, this Washington Post story from last March confirms that notion: “Americans are the unhappiest they’ve ever been, U.N. report finds.” The US dropped for the third year in a row to 19^th place among 156 countries in the United Nation’s World Happiness Report, an annual ranking of overall happiness. 

“By most accounts, Americans should be happier now than ever,” writes Jean M. Twenge, one of the report’s co-authors. “The violent crime rate is low, as is the unemployment rate. Income per capita has steadily grown over the last few decades.” It’s hard to believe, except that the news media rarely reports this type of good news. Instead they dwell on the negative, the scary and the sensational to incense the audience and attract clicks and eyeballs. 

Commenters on the report blame the trend toward unhappiness in part on the rise in addiction, but isn’t that more of a symptom than a cause? Is it an increase in screen time, activities that have been linked to increases in depression?

Perhaps one key can be found back in the full-size candy bar story. “Our satisfaction is very subjective…it’s not absolute, but driven by what we expect.” Expectations are set by perspective. If we lack perspective we allow others to judge us and set our expectations, and that can only lead to unhappiness.

Staying Conscious

Last time I explained how people tend to make decisions based on how they are feeling 95% of the time unless they make some effort to stop and think things through. The 5-second countdown trick is one way to pause, to slow down the process and avoid impulse decisions. 

We must be always alert because everyone trying to sell something takes advantage of this tendency to make decisions based on feelings. They play to our subconscious. 

Shortly after that I ran across a related article. It was called “Don’t get fooled or conned again” and presents five more tactics or techniques people or companies use “to get us to do what they want.” In most cases that means buy a product or service, but it may also mean adopting a particular political point of view.

Some of these tactics are obvious, like promising to send a huge windfall, but asking for a handling fee or a bank account number to get the process going. Most of the tactics though are common but more subtle, like offering a third item free when you buy two, even when two or three is much more than you need.

The tactics, referred to as superpowers, begin with understanding that the process of being fooled takes place inside your mind. If you are not alert to what is happening, you can be manipulated to buy whatever they are selling. "They’re trying to sell you on a story, to get you to buy into their narrative.”

The first is misdirection. Misdirection is why “companies and governments often release bad news on Fridays or before major holidays” when they know we will be distracted.

Next come time pressure and opportunity. The two are closely related. We are presented with a limited time to act or a limited number available. Any special sale or limited time pricing falls into the time pressure category. Car dealers have sales with catchy names near the end of each year with artificial deadlines, think Toyotathons and Happy Honda Days. Sometimes they combine the two by saying the sale is over at the end of the month or when they have sold a certain number.

Made up days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday also are examples. Estimates for this year are that those two days will result in sales of $12.3 billion (a 25% increase) and $9.48 billion (up 20%), respectively. And some companies have already started Black Friday promotions, so be careful to think first. Something you didn’t want or need is not a bargain, in spite of the great price.

The last two tactics are also closely related. “Social compliance refers to how we respond to people in authority” whereas “Social proof refers to how we constantly look to others around us for clues as to how to behave.” Both are powerful. Social compliance comes when encountering someone either with authority or perceived authority, such as a recognized expert. Examples include a treatment or pill advertised with a doctor’s endorsement or advice from TV doctors, who depend on hype to keep the audience engaged.

Social proof comes from the many customer endorsements (instead of evidence) in those same ads. It explains why when one person begins to applaud, the rest tend to join in. It drives much of the behavior on social media where likes draw more likes and people tend to congregate on line with others who share their philosophy. 

In one study in 2011, a cognitive neuroscientist at Temple University exposed 32 teens to a series of Instagram photos while they were in an MRI machine. They mixed them with other pictures and randomly assigned ratings. The teens were allowed to like a photo or pass. “Teens were much more likely to like images that seemed popular [and] skip pictures with few likes. And the brain's reward pathways became especially active when the teens viewed their own photos with many likes.” That is how social proof works on both teens and adults, likes draw more likes and memes go viral with hardly the firing of a single brain cell.

The article presenting the five tactics concluded: “Be careful when you feel emotionally moved by the headline, and be even more careful when you agree with the headline or when the headline makes you happy, because that’s when you need to watch out.” The best defense against being fooled and conned is critical thinking.

New Thoughts on an Old Idea

Looking through my various news feeds, I came across a recent reprint of an article published at Inc.com in 2017. It was called “How to Change Your Life in 5 Seconds” and gives a simple tip on how to avoid procrastination. By merely counting backward from five to zero, mimicking a NASA countdown, you can overcome the inertia that results from feeling unmotivated to do whatever comes next in life, simple decisions like getting out of bed or starting a project.

The thought behind the countdown suggestion references a Harvard Business article from four years earlier that, in turn, presents an interview with a Harvard professor who published a book in 2003, How Customers Think: Essential Insights into the Mind of the Market. The book is about how to ensure your marketing message gets through to potential customers, based on years of research and “drawing heavily on psychology, neuroscience, sociology, and linguistics.”

So what does that have to do with procrastination, or anything else for that matter? The key discovery is “that 95 percent of our purchase decision making takes place in the subconscious mind.” In fact he suggests, “95 percent of all cognition occurs in the subconscious mind.” In terms of buying behaviors, we leap before we look. Decisions in general are not based on logic or rational thought. “They're based on emotion, on how a person feels about the action.”

It follows that if you give yourself time to think about not feeling like getting out of bed or not feeling like doing whatever needs to be done next, the result is procrastination. The countdown is a conscious effort to block those feelings and, in those 5 seconds, it’s possible to be out of bed already or taking the first step toward any other task that lies ahead.

But this practice could go beyond the simple, everyday decisions. According to the original source, the same appears to apply to buying decisions as well – and we don’t only buy material goods, we buy ideas and opinions.

Take as an example the common tips for selling a house. Some include: half-empty closets; turning on all the lights; clean or new curtains, door handles and cabinet hardware; inexpensive shrubs and brightly colored flowers for curb appeal; cut flowers or cookies in the entryway instead of the more typical coatracks and key hooks. All this is superficial. It targets the emotions, the feelings, the 95%. It’s manipulative, and it works.

This goes far beyond buying a house. Retailers study how they can get us to buy more: One site lists 15 tricks such as:

• Oversized sales signs;
• Shopping carts at the entrance to inspire larger purchases;
• High profit items at the front of the store so you have walk past them to get to essentials, which are in the back of the store;
• Most profitable items at eye-level;
• Music to make shopping fun;
• Plenty of elbowroom;
• Customer rewards cards;
• Low-cost impulse items at the checkout; and
• Limited time offers, vanity sizing, and other psychological tricks.

One age-old piece of advice to overcome these mind games is to make a shopping list (of items, or features in the case of a larger purchase like a house or car) and stick to it. Also, what if everyone did a countdown before putting something in the cart? What if everyone did a countdown before driving into the car lot? What if everyone did a countdown before believing what we hear or see on social media, on ads from purveyors of health and beauty miracle products, on the national news or in political speeches? 

Use the countdown trick as a safeguard to buy just enough time to let the critical thinking kick in. Make it your trick to defend against their tricks. Use it to protect yourself from the marketing ploys and emotional appeals aimed at that vulnerable 95%.

Medicare for All – Part 2

With all the campaign promises about Medicare for all, I took the opportunity about two months ago to explain how Medicare actually works. Politicians give the impression that it’s a totally free health insurance program. Just walk into the doctor’s office or emergency room, tell them your number, get fixed up and leave with no expectation of receiving a bill. 

Real Medicare today is not like that at all. Why would they spend time on TV and in mailings advertising supplemental insurance that “helps pay some of the health care costs that Original Medicare doesn't cover, like: Copayments, Coinsurance, Deductibles”? Those extra costs can only be avoided by paying money up front as a premium for the additional insurance.

From recent news, though, it’s clear that this misimpression is not the only problem. Medicare fraud is another big issue. Sometimes this is a critical thinking issue where patients are lured in as unwitting participants. Sometimes it goes deeper.

Late last month, thirty-five individuals associated with dozens of telemedicine companies and laboratories were charged with fraudulently billing Medicare more than $2.1 billion for expensive cancer genetic tests. Nine of the defendants are medical doctors. “In addition, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Center for Program Integrity (CMS/CPI), announced…adverse administrative action against cancer genetic testing companies and medical professionals who submitted more than $1.7 billion in claims to the Medicare program.”

One of the defendants in this case, who cost taxpayers more than $1 billion in illegal Medicare reimbursements, “has been under near-constant federal scrutiny for the past five years and was supposed to have been deported more than a decade ago.” That was billions lost to fraud as a result of only one investigation, due in part to government inaction.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office Inspector General has issued an alert to the public about other genetic testing schemes. Medicare eligible patients are offered a free genetic screening for undetected conditions, but the real motive is to get their Medicare information “for identity theft or fraudulent billing purposes.” The screenings are unnecessary and are usually denied by Medicare. When they are, the individual could be responsible for the entire cost of these useless tests, sometimes thousands of dollars. 

They get nothing but the promise of some new information about their health with the selling point that, as Medicare recipients, it may be free to them. This promise of something for nothing – free testing or free devices all paid for by Medicare – is used so often it’s beginning to sound stale, but it must be working.

Advice from the Inspector General is to not volunteer any information to these genetic testers, don’t stop at their booths at health conferences, ignore their ads, and return unopened any testing kits received in the mail.

Medicare fraud is a huge problem. The AARP reported in March of last year “roughly 10 cents of every dollar budgeted for the giant health insurance program is stolen or misdirected before it helps any enrollee. Looked at another way, about $1,000 is lost per Medicare member through theft or waste each year.” That estimate is based on government reports, but a leading expert from Harvard University believes the real number could be much higher, 20% or more.

AARP used the figure of $60 billion in fraud for the 2018 calculations cited above. Other sources show exactly the same estimate for 2015 and 2011. The number hasn’t changed in eight years. Apparently as fast as they can lock people up or put them out of business, more fraudsters spring up to take their place.

Would the general public as a whole be less likely to become victims of Medicare-for-All fraud schemes? That’s doubtful, and it leads to so much waste. 

Salt is Salt - Part 2

Almost seven years ago I wrote here about the sea salt scam. In that piece I quoted Mayo Clinic as saying, “Sea salt and table salt have the same basic nutritional value, despite the fact that sea salt is often marketed as a more natural and healthy alternative.” The American Heart Association (AHA) agreed.

But then a few weeks ago, I ran across an article with the headline: “How Pink Salt Took Over Millennial Kitchens.” Immediately it goes on to explain that, like sea salt, it’s not healthier than common table salt. It’s labeled as Himalayan, but does not come from the Himalayas. “Most of that comes from the enormous Khewra Salt Mine, situated between Islamabad and Lahore in Punjab, a bit south of the actual Himalayas in Pakistan.” 

Despite that, it has become another foodie fad, skyrocketing in popularity, featured at Trader Joes with it’s own grinder. The popularity stems not only from the color – it’s prettier than plain old white salt – but because it’s also rumored to be healthier. Take the warnings from the AHA and others about salt consumption, combine that with the fact that salt makes food taste good, mix that with the mistaken notion that this special salt is really healthy because of some mythological “trace minerals” and voila! - gullible people are willing to pay $2.70 a pound at Costco in bulk. For comparison, sea salt at Costco goes for 1.76 per pound and Morton Salt at a restaurant wholesale site is $0.38. Those must be some expensive trace minerals!

Contrary to what pink salt enthusiasts claim, real nutritionists agree that the amount of trace minerals in any salt “is too minuscule to make any difference, and we already get plenty of the same trace minerals from other foods.” Another site confirms that “The ‘84 minerals’ in himalayan salt is an unsupported claim.” It’s all marketing hype.

It’s so easy to go on line, though, to find glowing endorsements of pink salt pushing these imaginary health benefits. This one is a good example: “Many people believe that this pink salt is the purest salt that can be found on the planet.” Maybe so, but many people believe a lot of things that aren’t true.

In case you aren’t convinced by the purity and naturalness alone, it goes on to claim that pink salt stores “vibrational energy,” whatever that is. Supposedly it aids vascular health, supports respiratory functions, reduces the signs of aging, promotes healthy sleep patterns, increases libido, lowers blood pressure, and detoxifies the body of heavy metals – among other benefits. (Apparently, to get some of these benefits, we must add it to our bath water.)

First, the word detoxify should raise warning flags to anyone with any scientific understanding of how the human body functions. Second, the idea that any salt lowers blood pressure flies in the face of all medical understanding. Increased salt consumption increases the risk of high blood pressure. Finally, supports and promotes are words often used by snake oil salesmen regarding all sorts of magical supplements, potions and ointments to cure all sorts of ailments. Promoting and supporting cannot be measured, thus they are meaningless. It’s junk science at it’s finest.

But don’t let that stop Millennials searching for the magic potions allowing them to live forever. Set the grinder of pretty pink salt on the table to impress friends and mix it with the bathwater to increase libido and conquer aging. Then wonder why you are no healthier or younger looking and can’t afford to retire when you expect to. They fall for hype and fads in the same way their parents do. Gullibility must be hereditary.